451 NW Hill Rd · McMinnville, OR 97128

$420,000

5 bd · 4.0 ba · 3,275 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1986 0.25 ac lot $128/sqft · 38% below area Est $676k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great potential, versatile property with flexible office/residential zoning. Features multiple bedrooms and bathrooms, a spacious kitchen/dining area, and a large covered patio. Functional layout lends itself to a large residence, adult foster care, office space, or more. Property needs some TLC—great opportunity to add value and customize to your needs.

Key facts

• Large covered patio
• Functional layout
• 0.25 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE COVERED PATIO
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease not required; Zoning: O-R

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Security: Fire sprinkler system
• Utilities: Electric hot water; Electric fuel; Public water; Public sewer; Cable internet
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Resale condition; Property not attached
• Construction: Built in 1986; Cement siding; Tile roof; Stem wall foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Yard; Level lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator; Kitchen/dining room combo; Sliding doors off the kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (lower level); Second bedroom (lower level); Third bedroom (lower level); Fourth bedroom (lower level); Fifth bedroom (lower level); Den (lower level)
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wall-to-wall carpet
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms (three on lower level, one on upper level)
• Heating & cooling: Wall heater; No central cooling listed
• Interior features: Accessible entrance; Laundry; Sprinkler system; Vinyl flooring; Wall-to-wall carpet; Double-pane windows; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/4.0-bath single-family listed at $420k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($832/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $357k (14.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $357k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in McMinnville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#79 in OR, #3,556 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, housing A, crime B; Watch: commute D+.
• Mcminnville SD 40 (town): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #20 of 183 in OR (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Newby Elementary School (445 students, 70% FRL); Duniway Middle School (806 students, 66% FRL); Mcminnville High School (2,319 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 396 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 282 units permitted in Yamhill County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,574/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 1508% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yamhill County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $325k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $357,391 (14.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.71%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $675,513
• List price: $420,000
• Delta: -37.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
712 NW Allen Ct	0.12mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,044 (-7%)	18mo	$735,000	$241	59
1784 NW 8th St	0.49mi	5/3.0	3,354 (+2%)	13mo	$765,000	$228	59
604 NW MT Bachelor St	0.38mi	4/3.0 (-1)	3,568 (+9%)	1mo	$860,000	$241	57
384 SW MT Mazama St	0.51mi	5/4.0	3,154 (-4%)	17mo	$749,000	$237	56
1863 NW Wallace Rd	0.54mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,496 (+7%)	15mo	$1,175,000	$336	47
132 SW MT Adams St	0.32mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,810 (-14%)	9mo	$685,000	$244	45
1988 NW Woodland Dr	0.62mi	5/4.0	3,016 (-8%)	18mo	$699,000	$232	43
1800 NW Wallace Rd	0.52mi	5/3.0	2,825 (-14%)	8mo	$670,000	$237	42
2862 NW MT Ashland Ln	0.64mi	5/3.0	2,979 (-9%)	16mo	$885,000	$297	38
1575 Yohn Ranch Dr	0.60mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,876 (-12%)	24mo	$790,000	$275	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-71,454
• Equity at exit: $62,623

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-87,208
• Equity at exit: $36,314

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97128

• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 396
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax from tax record: −$376 /mo · $4,518/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$751
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,486

Max offer price $420,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $307	-5% $188	+0% $69	+5% $-50	+10% $-168
Rent	-10% $-213	-5% $-72	+0% $69	+5% $211	+10% $352
Rate	-1.0pp $281	-0.5pp $176	base $69	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-150

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1796 NW Wallace Rd Unit 1271944P McMinnville, OR	5.0	4.0	3595	$10,271	$2.86	23d	1	0.51mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 362-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $420,000 Active 362-char remark
3. 2017-06-01
   soldstatus $325,000
4. 2006-09-19
   soldstatus $400,000
5. 1999-04-23
   soldstatus $169,000
6. 1999-03-10
   soldstatus $147,840

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,518 · $376/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,518 · $376/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,887
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$4,518
• − Insurance: −$2,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,431
• − Management: −$3,431
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$6,338
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,521
• After-tax cash flow: $2,353/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcminnville SD 40
• NCES district ID: 4108010
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $47,382
• Composite: 47.69/100
• National rank: #4919
• State rank: #20 of 183 in OR

Livability — McMinnville

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #3556

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McMinnville, OR
• County: Yamhill County · 71,150 people
• City population: 38,664
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• Population (ZIP): 38,664
• Household income: $75,896
• Rent vs Own: 34.2% rent · 65.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1508.0

Population outlook (Yamhill County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 109,295 people
• By 2030: 112,060 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 115,975 · +6.1%
• By 2050: 118,155 · +8.1%
• By 2075: 120,968 · +10.7%
• By 2100: 116,163 · +6.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Portuguese 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yamhill

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.1) · D 45.3% · R 51.4% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.8pp toward R · 2008: -1.4pp · 2024: -6.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.1 2020: R+4.0 2016: R+8.8 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+1.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -201.59%
• Current HPI: 320.373
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+184.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — RMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $420,000 RMLS
• 2017-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $325,000 Public Records
• 2006-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $400,000 Public Records
• 1999-04-23 Sold (Public Records) $169,000 Public Records
• 1999-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $147,840 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2017): $4,518 · +16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.