1822 Jonquil Ln NW

Olympia, WA 98502

$455,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,390 sqft · Built 1986 · SingleFamily · Pending · 264 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,194/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax + insurance: −$573
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-1,240/mo
• Annual: $-14,883/yr
• Cap rate: 3.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.68%
• DSCR: 0.48
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $127,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $455k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $236k (48.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (51.8% below list).
• It's been on market 264 days — a 12% lower offer ($400k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $219k (51.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $46k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Leland P Brown Elementary (316 students, 63% FRL); Jefferson Middle School (447 students, 54% FRL); Capital High School (1,326 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools average 52% FRL vs 25% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 306 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $95k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $362k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 264 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?