4416 Anchor Point Dr

Caddo Mills, TX 75474

$304,345D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,826 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Pending · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,026/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,596
• Tax + insurance: −$507
• HOA: −$49
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-552/mo
• Annual: $-6,623/yr
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.77%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $85,217

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $304k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-552 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (33.4% below list).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $203k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kathryn Griffis El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 568 students, 34% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.