4416 Anchor Point Dr · Caddo Mills, TX 75474

$304,345

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,826 sqft · SingleFamily · 87 Days on market

Built 2026 8,347 sqft lot $167/sqft · at area comps Est $304k · at est. $49/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.4/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Single-level living at its finest can be found in the Crawford, featuring a large kitchen that would pamper any chef with counter and cabinet space, plus a walk in pantry. A separate laundry room and mud room with coat closet define spaces for clutter-free living. An open concept breakfast area and family room connects the kitchen and the backyard for effortless entertaining. The owner's suite also enjoys views of the backyard and separation from the two other bedrooms.

Key facts

• 8,347 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $304k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-552 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $224k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (33.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (33.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#216 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Caddo Mills ISD (rural): math 59% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #60 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Kathryn Griffis El (math 62% / reading 64%, grade B, #300 of 4,322 statewide, top 7%, 568 students, 34% FRL); Caddo Mills Middle (math 51% / reading 53%, grade C+, #301 of 1,662 statewide, top 19%, 416 students, 28% FRL); Caddo Mills H S (math 72% / reading 77%, grade B+, #82 of 1,632 statewide, top 6%, 681 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 30% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $33k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $202,570 (33.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.77%
• DSCR: 0.65
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,877
• List price: $304,345
• Delta: 0.15%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3812 Arrowchop Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,876 (+3%)	4mo	$324,682	$173	88

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.53×
• Total profit: $130,661
• Equity at exit: $274,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.84×
• Total profit: $412,540
• Equity at exit: $591,275

Cash invested: $85,217 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75474

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,596
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$380 /mo · $4,565/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$49
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $-552

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,724

Max offer price $224,476

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-342	-5% $-447	+0% $-552	+5% $-657	+10% $-762
Rent	-10% $-712	-5% $-632	+0% $-552	+5% $-472	+10% $-392
Rate	-1.0pp $-399	-0.5pp $-475	base $-552	+0.5pp $-631	+1.0pp $-711

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,086
• Closing costs: $9,130
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
116 Easy Goer Trl Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1864	$1,850	$0.99	19d	1	1.40mi
123 Easy Goer Trl Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2092	$2,100	$1.00	20d	1	1.43mi
104 Omaha Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1575	$1,995	$1.27	14d	1	1.43mi
110 Real Quiet Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2158	$2,100	$0.97	24d	1	1.44mi
113 Alydar Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$2,000	$1.18	45d	1	1.45mi
111 Real Quiet Ln Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	2106	$2,100	$1.00	13d	1	1.46mi
134 Cotton Mill Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	3.0	2455	$2,695	$1.10	45d	1	1.48mi
151 Seabiscuit Dr Caddo Mills, TX	4.0	2.0	1690	$1,750	$1.04	45d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $49 · $588/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-03
   listed $304,345 Active 474-char remark

   Show marketing remark (474 chars)

   Single-level living at its finest can be found in the Crawford, featuring a large kitchen that would pamper any chef with counter and cabinet space, plus a walk in pantry. A separate laundry room and mud room with coat closet define spaces for clutter-free living. An open concept breakfast area and family room connects the kitchen and the backyard for effortless entertaining. The owner's suite also enjoys views of the backyard and separation from the two other bedrooms.

2. 2026-03-02
   listed $304,345 Active 939-char remark

   Show marketing remark (939 chars)

   MLS# 21195531 - Built by Smith Douglas Homes - Jul 2026 completion! ~ This stunning single-family residence in the desirable Fox Landing subdivision is currently under construction and set for completion by June 15, 2026. Spanning 1,826 square feet, this traditional home features three spacious bedrooms, all designed as primary suites, and two full bathrooms. The open floorplan seamlessly connects the living and dining areas, perfect for entertaining. Enjoy the modern kitchen equipped with an island, pantry, and decorative lighting. Relax by the cozy fireplace in the living room or unwind in the comfort of central heating and cooling, complete with ceiling fans. Additional highlights include a two-car garage, walk-in closets, and durable vinyl and carpet flooring. Conveniently located within the Caddo Mills ISD, this home is ideal for families seeking quality education. Don't miss the opportunity to make this your dream home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,048
• − Property taxes: −$4,565
• − Insurance: −$1,522
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,945
• − Management: −$1,945
• − HOA: −$588
• − Depreciation: −$8,854
• Taxable loss: −$12,158
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,918
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,706/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Caddo Mills ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $65,383
• Composite: 51.73/100
• National rank: #1684
• State rank: #60 of 826 in TX

Livability — Caddo Mills

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #216
• US rank: #5332

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• City population: 10,265
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,671
• Household income: $64,103
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.95%
• Current HPI: 484.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-03 Listed $304,345 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Listed $304,345 NTREIS