6587 Dolphin Cir Unit B

Black Jack, MO 63033

$104,900C-

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Built 1990 · SingleFamily · Active · 167 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,236/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax + insurance: −$175
• HOA: −$426
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-175/mo
• Annual: $-2,094/yr
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.13%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 1.18%
• Cash to close: $29,372

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $80k (24.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $80k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Minor: Driveway — Cracks in concrete
• Minor: Exterior siding — Some discoloration