6587 Dolphin Cir Unit B · Black Jack, MO 63033

$104,900

1 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · SingleFamily · 167 Days on market

Built 1990 Fair condition 0.26 ac lot $70/sqft · 17% below area Est $126k · 17% under $426/mo HOA · 34% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AUCTION Occupied - Great opportunity to own this spacious single-story condo/villa, built in 1990 and featuring 1 bedroom, 2 baths, and a garage. NO ACCESS, OR VIEWINGS of this property. Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. "As is" cash only sale with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing. ***Please read all disclaimers before placing a bid***

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1990

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $105k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-175 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $80k (24.1% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 6.2% in Black Jack — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#132 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Hazelwood (suburban): math 11% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #306 of 324 in MO (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $10k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 167 days — a 12% lower offer ($92k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,646 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 167 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.13%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $126,413
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -17.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6558 Dolphin Cir	0.08mi	2/3.0 (+1)	1,517 (+1%)	11mo	$159,000	$105	76
13595 Old Jamestown Rd	0.70mi	2/2.0 (+1)	1,692 (+13%)	22mo	$400,000	$236	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $52,160
• Equity at exit: $94,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.03×
• Total profit: $177,151
• Equity at exit: $203,798

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63033

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$131 /mo · $1,574/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$426
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $-175

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,457

Max offer price $79,646

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11969 Continental Dr St. Louis, MO	2.0–3.0	1.5	1075	$1,035	$0.96	2d	3	1.24mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $426 · $5,112/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 167 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 162 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 158 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 157 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $104,900 Active 156 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,900 Active 153 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 152 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 151 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 150 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 149 DOM
15. 2026-01-02
    listed $104,900 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    AUCTION Occupied - Great opportunity to own this spacious single-story condo/villa, built in 1990 and featuring 1 bedroom, 2 baths, and a garage. NO ACCESS, OR VIEWINGS of this property. Please DO NOT DISTURB the occupant. "As is" cash only sale with no contingencies or inspections. Buyer will be responsible for obtaining possession of the property upon closing. ***Please read all disclaimers before placing a bid***

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,832
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$1,574
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,187
• − Management: −$1,187
• − HOA: −$5,112
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable loss: −$3,679
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$883
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This single-story home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and value. Painting the exterior and sealing driveway cracks would significantly enhance its curb appeal and marketability.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Driveway — Cracks in concrete
• Minor Exterior siding — Some discoloration

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Seal driveway cracks — Improves appearance and prevents further damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Driveway · Cracks in concrete	Minor	$500–3,000
Exterior siding · Some discoloration	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Seal driveway cracks — Improves appearance and prevents further damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazelwood
• NCES district ID: 2913830
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $51,621
• Composite: 16.77/100
• National rank: #9156
• State rank: #306 of 324 in MO

Livability — Black Jack

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #7706

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• City population: 42,258
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 43,056
• Household income: $66,776
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1429.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 71% White 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.78%
• Current HPI: 570.6
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-01-02 Listed $104,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid