123 Lea Dr

Newark, NY 14513

$114,900D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,396 sqft · Built 1953 · SingleFamily · Pending · 21 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,192/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$477
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-138/mo
• Annual: $-1,653/yr
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.14%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 1.04%
• Cash to close: $32,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (10.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $103k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Newark Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #527 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.