123 Lea Dr · Newark, NY 14513

$114,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,396 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1953 0.36 ac lot $82/sqft · 45% below area Est $210k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

$114,900 for a ranch on a third of an acre with an attached garage and a full finished basement. Read that again. Now the honest part — and we mean all of it: the roof needs replacing, the bathrooms are dated, the kitchen is original, the finishes throughout are tired, and the house has been closed up for a while. You'll know it when you walk in. We're not hiding any of it. We're pricing for all of it. That's the whole point. Every one of those issues is cosmetic or fixable. None of them touch what actually matters in a house: the block foundation is solid, the gas hot water baseboard heat works, the copper plumbing is intact, city water and sewer are connected, and the bones of this

Key facts

• Blacktop driveway
• Copper plumbing
• Block foundation

Tags

• FULL FINISHED BASEMENT
• BLOCK FOUNDATION
• GAS HOT WATER BASEBOARD HEAT
• COPPER PLUMBING
• CITY WATER AND SEWER
• BLACKTOP DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1 garage space
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric service
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing property condition
• Construction: Wood siding; Copper plumbing; Block foundation; Asphalt architectural shingle roof
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot; City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Dining area; Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Natural woodwork; Bedroom on main level; Full, finished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-138 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $103k (10.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#405 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
• Newark Central School District (town): math 33% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #527 of 590 in NY (top 89%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.5% of price; built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $102,954 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.14%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $210,447
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: -45.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
226 Charlotte St	0.08mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,404 (+1%)	4mo	$242,500	$173	85
111 Lea Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,417 (+2%)	12mo	$210,000	$148	83
131 Rose Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-7%)	8mo	$188,500	$145	74
257 Grace Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+8%)	6mo	$230,000	$153	69
108 Van Dusen St	0.20mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,568 (+12%)	3mo	$174,000	$111	63
112 Jason Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-0%)	9mo	$270,000	$194	56
428 West Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,488 (+7%)	8mo	$230,000	$155	54
1343 Hillside Dr	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,424 (+2%)	16mo	$170,000	$119	52
338 Grace Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,224 (-12%)	17mo	$150,000	$123	47
206 Prospect St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+6%)	16mo	$84,900	$57	46
622 W Maple Ave	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,511 (+8%)	11mo	$210,000	$139	46
307 E Myrtle Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,480 (+6%)	20mo	$210,000	$142	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-27,201
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-34,201
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14513

• Home prices YoY: -16.7%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,192 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$429 /mo · $5,148/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$250
• Net cashflow: $-138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,366

Max offer price $102,954

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
310 Washington St Newark, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,200	$1.33	2d	1	0.51mi
840 Peirson Ave Newark, NY	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$1,185	$1.01	2d	1	0.57mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $114,900 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $114,900 Active Under Contract 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $114,900 Active Under Contract 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $114,900 Active Under Contract 18 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $114,900 Active Under Contract 17 DOM
6. 2026-05-14
   listed $114,900 Active 1414-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,148 · $429/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,148 · $429/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$5,148
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,144
• − Management: −$1,144
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable loss: −$3,486
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$837
• After-tax cash flow: $-817/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newark Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3620640
• Math proficiency: 33% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 15.00%
• Median HH income: $44,966
• Composite: 33.55/100
• National rank: #5428
• State rank: #527 of 590 in NY

Livability — Newark

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #405
• US rank: #6978

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newark, NY
• Population (ZIP): 13,501

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 13% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.98%
• Current HPI: 253.627
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-21 Contingent — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $114,900 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,148 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.