368 Bald Eagle Ln

Kenly, NC 27542

$269,900D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,372 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 3 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,950/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,374
• Tax + insurance: −$437
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $-271/mo
• Annual: $-3,250/yr
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.43%
• DSCR: 0.80
• 1% rule: 0.74%
• Cash to close: $73,375

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-271 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $223k (17.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (27.8% below list).
• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $195k (27.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#183 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Princeton Elementary (math 44% / reading 38%, grade F, #680 of 1,410 statewide, top 48%, 713 students, 60% FRL); Johnston Co Early College Academy (math 84% / reading 95%, grade A+, #40 of 535 statewide, top 8%, 281 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools at 44% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 65% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+25 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Johnston County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 89 active listings in the ZIP; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.5% in Kenly — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.