3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,385 sqft ·
Built 2004
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 16 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,253/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,547
Tax + insurance
−$304
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$473
Net cashflow
$-71/mo
Annual
$-855/yr
Cap rate
6.00%
Cash-on-cash
-1.03%
DSCR
0.95
1% rule
0.76%
Cash to close
$82,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-71 ($-855/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $282k (4.3% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (23.6% below list).
It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $225k (23.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,975 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Cranberry Elementary School (math 69% / reading 68%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 785 students, 68% FRL); North Port High School (math 44% / reading 57%, grade D+, #171 of 667 statewide, top 26%, 2,562 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 42% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 837 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $77k; list at $295k implies a 282% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in North Port — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QDYFVDA1KB8AZ5
· Data 2 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29