12627 Lodge Dr

Lost Bridge Village, AR 72732

$585,000C

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,208 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 44 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,184/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,068
• Tax + insurance: −$504
• HOA: −$32
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,089
• Net cashflow: $492/mo
• Annual: $5,904/yr
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $163,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $585k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $518k (11.4% below list).
• It's been on market 44 days — a 3% lower offer ($567k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $518k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 130 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $164k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 44 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.