12627 Lodge Dr · Lost Bridge Village, AR 72732

$585,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,208 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 1.12 ac lot $32/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Built in 2022 and perfectly positioned on a level 1.12-acre lot atop Whitney Mountain, this stunning 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in Lost Bridge Village offers the ideal blend of modern comfort and lake community living. Designed with space and flexibility in mind, the home features two luxurious primary suites, making it perfect for guests or multi-generational living. Bright, oversized windows fill the home with natural light and showcase the peaceful setting. The open-concept layout flows beautifully for entertaining, while quality finishes and thoughtful design create a warm, inviting atmosphere throughout. Enjoy the amenities of Lost Bridge Village, including a community pool, pickleball c

Key facts

• Pickleball courts
• Clubhouse
• Community pool

Tags

• 1.12-ACRE LOT
• TWO PRIMARY SUITES
• COMMUNITY POOL
• PICKLEBALL COURTS
• CLUBHOUSE
• PLAYGROUND

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Part of Lost Bridge Village association; Association fee $384 annually; Community features include lake and pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Circular driveway; 2 covered parking spaces
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Architectural shingle roof
• Construction: Block foundation; Construction details: see remarks
• Exterior features: Concrete driveway; Covered patio; Patio; Storage structure; Back yard fencing; Community pool (shared); Access to Beaver Lake

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Disposal; Microwave with hood fan; Plumbed for ice maker; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Attic; Ceiling fans; Cathedral ceilings; Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; Pantry; Storage; Smart home features; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Double-pane windows; Blinds
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $585k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $492 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $518k (11.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $518k (11.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.8% in Lost Bridge Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#348 in AR) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, employment B; Watch: cost of living C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Rogers School District (urban): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #31 of 238 in AR (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,359 units permitted in Benton County in 2024 (402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $49k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (7.6% local appreciation)).
• Benton County population projected at +56% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (7.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $164k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$78k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($567k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $518,400 (11.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.60%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $291,456
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12598 Lodge Dr	0.05mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,996 (-10%)	2mo	$263,000	$132	69

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $257,533
• Equity at exit: $428,909

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $723,364
• Equity at exit: $836,979

Cash invested: $163,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72732

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,068
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,117/yr
• Insurance: −$244
• HOA: −$32
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,089
• Net cashflow: $492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,561

Max offer price $585,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $823	-5% $658	+0% $492	+5% $326	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $82	-5% $287	+0% $492	+5% $697	+10% $902
Rate	-1.0pp $787	-0.5pp $641	base $492	+0.5pp $340	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $146,250
• Closing costs: $17,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12310 Slate Gap Rd Unit 1221931P Garfield, AR	4.0	2.5	2798	$5,184	$1.85	14d	1	0.58mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $32 · $384/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $585,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $585,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $585,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $585,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $585,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $585,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $585,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $585,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $585,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $585,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $585,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $585,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $585,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $585,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $585,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $585,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $585,000 Active
18. 2026-03-06
    price $600,000
19. 2025-09-19
    price $665,000
20. 2025-07-18
    price $675,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,117 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,744 · $312/mo
• Expected delta: +$627/yr (+$52/mo · 20.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥105°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $62,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$32,769
• − Property taxes: −$3,117
• − Insurance: −$2,925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,977
• − Management: −$4,977
• − HOA: −$384
• − Depreciation: −$17,018
• Taxable loss: −$3,959
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$950
• After-tax cash flow: $6,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2022-built home in Lost Bridge Village is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good return on investment with updates that can significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms and kitchen — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New window treatments — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rogers School District
• NCES district ID: 0511970
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 38.81/100
• National rank: #4113
• State rank: #31 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lost Bridge Village

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #348
• US rank: #21912

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lost Bridge Village, AR
• Population (ZIP): 5,493

Population outlook (Benton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 318,683 people
• By 2030: 353,481 · +10.9%
• By 2040: 425,280 · +33.4%
• By 2050: 497,239 · +56.0%
• By 2075: 662,114 · +107.8%
• By 2100: 776,431 · +143.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Two or more races 27% Hispanic / Latino 11% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Danish 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Benton

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.0) · D 35.2% · R 62.1% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: -36.5pp · 2024: -27.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.0 2020: R+26.4 2016: R+34.9 2012: R+40.4 2008: R+36.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.61%
• Current HPI: 368.3932
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $585,000 NWARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $600,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Price Changed $665,000 NWARMLS
• 2025-07-18 Price Changed $675,000 NWARMLS

Property tax history

+78.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,117 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.