Moonshadow Plan

Jacksonville, FL 32097

$426,900D

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,656 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 445 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,955/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,521
• Tax + insurance: −$801
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$621
• Net cashflow: $-988/mo
• Annual: $-11,852/yr
• Cap rate: 3.83%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.81%
• DSCR: 0.61
• 1% rule: 0.61%
• Cash to close: $134,606

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $427k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-988 ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $338k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $296k (30.8% below list).
• It's been on market 445 days — a 12% lower offer ($376k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $296k (30.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $51k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $48k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 601 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$83k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 445 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.