15975 Hwy 36

Covington, GA 30014

$174,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · Built 1984 · SingleFamily · Active · 146 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,767/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax + insurance: −$235
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $248/mo
• Annual: $2,976/yr
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.11%
• DSCR: 1.27
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $48,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#396 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 479 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $174k implies a 533% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.8% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.