15975 Hwy 36 · Covington, GA 30014

$174,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1984 0.79 ac lot $167/sqft · 27% below area Est $240k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter home, or downsizing, minutes from Covington, Jackson and Monticello. Home is occupied, requires 4 hours notice to show

Key facts

• 0.79 acre lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 146 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $248 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 3.8% in Covington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#396 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Newton County (suburban): math 17% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #137 of 174 in GA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 479 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,480 units permitted in Newton County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Newton County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $174k implies a 533% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.11%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,789
• List price: $174,000
• Delta: -27.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16170 Highway 36	0.39mi	3/2.0	960 (-8%)	9mo	$220,000	$229	58
200 Highway 212	0.64mi	3/1.0	1,112 (+7%)	5mo	$264,900	$238	55
1045 Fincher Rd	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,160 (+12%)	14mo	$270,000	$233	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-16,709
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-11,037
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30014

• Home prices YoY: -19.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 479
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,767 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,952/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$371
• Net cashflow: $248

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,453

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15985 Highway 36 Covington, GA	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,530	$1.14	43d	1	0.03mi
115 Kendall Ln Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,656	$1.29	10d	1	0.61mi
185 Hunters Trce Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,550	$1.11	1d	1	1.19mi
60 Hunters Ridge Ct Covington, GA	3.0	2.0	1268	$1,635	$1.29	3d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 145 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 144 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 143 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 141 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 140 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 136 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,000 Active 135 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $174,000 Active 132 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 131 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,000 Active 130 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,000 Active 129 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 128 DOM
15. 2026-04-04
    price $174,000 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Great starter home, or downsizing, minutes from Covington, Jackson and Monticello. Home is occupied, requires 4 hours notice to show

16. 2026-02-09
    price $180,000 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Great starter home, or downsizing, minutes from Covington, Jackson and Monticello. Home is occupied, requires 4 hours notice to show

17. 2026-01-22
    listed $199,000 New 134-char remark

    Show marketing remark (134 chars)

    Great starter home, or downsizing, minutes from Covington, Jackson and Monticello. Home is occupied, requires 4 hours notice to show

18. 2023-05-14
    historical
19. 2022-11-27
    price $175,000
20. 2022-11-14
    listed $185,000 New
21. 1986-12-09
    soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,952 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,952 · $163/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$1,952
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,696
• − Management: −$1,696
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable income: $177
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$43
• After-tax cash flow: $2,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newton County
• NCES district ID: 1303930
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $50,768
• Composite: 19.2/100
• National rank: #8816
• State rank: #137 of 174 in GA

Livability — Covington

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #396
• US rank: #19602

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Newton County · 104,393 people
• City population: 104,393
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,425
• Household income: $72,254
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1934.0

Population outlook (Newton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 118,372 people
• By 2030: 124,234 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 135,550 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 145,309 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 166,843 · +40.9%
• By 2100: 175,800 · +48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Newton

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.3% · R 42.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 1.2pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+2.4 2012: D+2.0 2008: D+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.50%
• Current HPI: 270.9868
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.52%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+532.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $174,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $180,000 GAMLS
• 2026-01-22 Listed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2023-05-14 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2022-11-27 Price Changed $175,000 GAMLS
• 2022-11-14 Listed $185,000 GAMLS
• 1986-12-09 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,952 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.