154 Trueblood Rd

Monticello, KY 42633

$84,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Built 2011 · Manufactured · Active · 22 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax + insurance: −$76
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $348/mo
• Annual: $4,181/yr
• Cap rate: 11.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.59%
• DSCR: 1.78
• 1% rule: 1.30%
• Cash to close: $23,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#265 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wayne County (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #142 of 165 in KY (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Monticello Elementary School (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 630 students, 79% FRL); Wayne County Middle School (math 18% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 679 students, 75% FRL); Wayne County High School (math 24% / reading 40%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 940 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 57% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP.
• Wayne County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.9% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.