154 Trueblood Rd · Monticello, KY 42633

$84,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2011 0.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great starter or weekend home. This 3 bed, 2 bath home sits on .36 acres and is ready for new owners. Located only a few miles from downtown and less than 15 minutes from Conley Bottom Resort on Lake Cumberland. Plenty of level room to park a boat, jet skis or camper. Call today to schedule a showing.

Key facts

• Lake cumberland
• Outdoor recreation
• Private bathroom

Tags

• LAKE CUMBERLAND
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• LOCAL AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Crawl space foundation; Built area approximately 864
• Exterior features: Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Heat pump; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $348 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $84k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.2% vs local median 3.6% in Monticello — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#265 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Wayne County (town): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #142 of 165 in KY (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Monticello Elementary School (math 21% / reading 28%, grade F, #489 of 676 statewide, top 76%, 630 students, 79% FRL); Wayne County Middle School (math 18% / reading 36%, grade F, #172 of 217 statewide, top 80%, 679 students, 75% FRL); Wayne County High School (math 24% / reading 40%, grade F, #97 of 254 statewide, top 46%, 940 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 77% FRL vs 57% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 193 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $64k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $83,626 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.59%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $8,409
• Equity at exit: $12,659

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $35,800
• Equity at exit: $7,341

Cash invested: $23,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42633

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Active inventory: 193
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$445
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $484/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $348

Break-even live

Break-even rent $659

Max offer price $84,900

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,225
• Closing costs: $2,547
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,900 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,900 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,900 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $84,900 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,900 Contingent 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $84,900 Contingent 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $84,900 Contingent 9 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,900 Contingent 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $84,900 Contingent 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    status $84,900 Contingent 4 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $84,900 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $84,900 Active 3 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $84,900 Active 2 DOM
16. 2026-05-29
    listed $84,900 Active
17. 2022-04-11
    soldstatus $64,000 Closed 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Great starter or weekend home. This 3 bed, 2 bath home sits on .36 acres and is ready for new owners. Located only a few miles from downtown and less than 15 minutes from Conley Bottom Resort on Lake Cumberland. Plenty of level room to park a boat, jet skis or camper. Call today to schedule a showing.

18. 2022-03-15
    status Pending 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Great starter or weekend home. This 3 bed, 2 bath home sits on .36 acres and is ready for new owners. Located only a few miles from downtown and less than 15 minutes from Conley Bottom Resort on Lake Cumberland. Plenty of level room to park a boat, jet skis or camper. Call today to schedule a showing.

19. 2022-03-03
    listed $74,900 Active 305-char remark

    Show marketing remark (305 chars)

    Great starter or weekend home. This 3 bed, 2 bath home sits on .36 acres and is ready for new owners. Located only a few miles from downtown and less than 15 minutes from Conley Bottom Resort on Lake Cumberland. Plenty of level room to park a boat, jet skis or camper. Call today to schedule a showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $730 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$247/yr (+$21/mo · 51.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,205
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,756
• − Property taxes: −$484
• − Insurance: −$424
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,056
• − Management: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$2,470
• Taxable income: $2,958
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$710
• After-tax cash flow: $3,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wayne County
• NCES district ID: 2105790
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -21.00%
• Median HH income: $30,391
• Composite: 21.38/100
• National rank: #8358
• State rank: #142 of 165 in KY

Livability — Monticello

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #265
• US rank: #12963

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 18,609

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 19,477 people
• By 2030: 18,776 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 17,199 · -11.7%
• By 2050: 15,602 · -19.9%
• By 2075: 11,883 · -39.0%
• By 2100: 8,300 · -57.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Iranian 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.5% · R 82.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.9pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+62.0 2016: R+61.8 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -29.14%
• Current HPI: 227.5936
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+13.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $84,900 ImagineMLS
• 2022-04-11 Sold (MLS) $64,000 ImagineMLS
• 2022-03-15 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2022-03-03 Listed $74,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+13.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $484 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.