195 Blossom Hill Rd #242

San Jose, CA 95123

$459,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Built 2022 · Manufactured · Active · 75 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,127/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax + insurance: −$765
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$867
• Net cashflow: $88/mo
• Annual: $1,060/yr
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.82%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.90%
• Cash to close: $128,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $459k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $88 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $413k (10.1% below list).
• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $413k (10.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Oak Grove Elementary (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #339 of 1,400 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Anderson (Alex) Elementary (478 students, 48% FRL); Davis (Caroline) Intermediate (522 students, 48% FRL); Evergreen Valley High (math 76% / reading 83%, grade A-, #45 of 1,170 statewide, top 4%, 2,767 students, 13% FRL) — zoned schools at 36% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 50% district-wide (+29 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Oak Grove Elementary average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 123 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $459k implies a 665% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.