195 Blossom Hill Rd #242 · San Jose, CA 95123

$459,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 75 Days on market

Built 2022 $299/sqft · 14% above area Est $402k · 14% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home was custom built in 2022 and is move-in ready. At 1536 sq ft this 3 bed/2bath home has all high-end finishes. Granite counter tops and laminate floors throughout. Built with custom features like built-in entertainment center, gas fire place, and a large kitchen island perfect for entertaining. Home has earthquake bracing installed, and backyard has been upgraded with a patio and BBQ set.

Key facts

• Laminate floors
• Gas fire place
• High end finishes

Tags

• CUSTOM BUILT
• HIGH END FINISHES
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• LAMINATE FLOORS
• BUILT IN ENTERTAINMENT CENTER
• GAS FIRE PLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $459k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $94 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $413k (9.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $413k (9.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• Oak Grove Elementary (urban): math 47% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #339 of 1,400 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 124 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 75 days — a 6% lower offer ($431k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $459k implies a 665% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $413,364 (9.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 75 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.87%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $401,809
• List price: $459,000
• Delta: 14.23%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
195 Blossom Hill Rd #161	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-2%)	1mo	$399,888	$264	95
195 Blossom Hill Rd #111	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,512 (-2%)	0mo	$415,000	$274	92
195 Blossom Hill Rd #219	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,596 (+4%)	6mo	$340,000	$213	87
165 Blossom Hill Rd #145	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	1mo	$445,000	$297	85
165 Blossom Hill Rd #113	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-2%)	7mo	$415,000	$277	81
165 Blossom Hl #104	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,534 (-0%)	11mo	$430,000	$280	77
165 Blossom Hill Rd #49	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-2%)	14mo	$370,000	$245	76
5450 Monterey Rd #143	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,536 (0%)	2mo	$270,000	$176	69
195 Blossom Hill Rd #229	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	8mo	$269,000	$200	66
195 Blossom Hill Rd #218	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-6%)	12mo	$200,000	$139	65
510 Saddlebrook Dr #293	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-9%)	10mo	$410,000	$295	42
510 Saddlebrook #27	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,728 (+12%)	6mo	$540,000	$313	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.84% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-64,836
• Equity at exit: $68,438

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-33,829
• Equity at exit: $39,686

Cash invested: $128,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Jose: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+24

Apartment Rent Ordinance covers pre-1979 multifamily.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95123

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 124
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,134 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,407
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$574 /mo · $6,885/yr
• Insurance: −$191
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$868
• Net cashflow: $94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,015

Max offer price $459,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $411	-5% $252	+0% $94	+5% $-65	+10% $-224
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-70	+0% $94	+5% $257	+10% $420
Rate	-1.0pp $325	-0.5pp $210	base $94	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $114,750
• Closing costs: $13,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5683 Beswick Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	4d	1	0.26mi
5590 Makati Cir San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1233	$3,395	$2.75	3d	1	0.35mi
5659 Lathrop Dr San Jose, CA	3.0	2.0	1543	$4,300	$2.79	2d	1	0.50mi
5560 Lexington Ave San Jose, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	846	$3,530	$4.17	2d	14	0.64mi
5805 Charlotte Dr San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$4,965	$4.73	2d	18	0.71mi
250 Palm Valley Blvd San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1014	$4,357	$4.30	2d	7	0.73mi
150 Palm Valley Blvd San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$5,169	$5.03	2d	26	0.78mi
5002 Brook Valley Loop San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	1992	$4,500	$2.26	2d	1	0.87mi
5823 Brandon Ct San Jose, CA	4.0	3.5	2250	$4,700	$2.09	15d	1	0.88mi
348 Calero Ave San Jose, CA	3.0	2.0	1484	$4,450	$3.00	15d	1	0.91mi
5491 Demerest Ln San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1335	$4,800	$3.60	2d	1	0.95mi
5925 Charlotte Dr San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1261	$3,900	$3.09	2d	2	0.96mi
5959 Charlotte Dr San Jose, CA	3.0	4.0	1700	$4,000	$2.35	4d	1	0.99mi
5358 Borneo Cir San Jose, CA	3.0	2.0	1246	$3,440	$2.76	8d	1	1.04mi
5968 Sorrel Ave San Jose, CA	3.0	2.0	1377	$4,200	$3.05	2d	1	1.07mi
6320 Island Pine Way San Jose, CA	2.0	2.5	1293	$4,200	$3.25	4d	1	1.20mi
6320 Island Pine Way San Jose, CA	2.0	2.5	1293	$4,200	$3.25	2d	1	1.20mi
6063 Pineland Ave San Jose, CA	3.0	2.0	1223	$4,295	$3.51	2d	1	1.21mi
475 Chinook Ln San Jose, CA	3.0	2.0	1513	$4,700	$3.11	23d	1	1.23mi
5369 Entrada Cedros San Jose, CA	4.0	2.5	1908	$5,250	$2.75	21d	1	1.38mi
6809 Canine Ct San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	1822	$4,375	$2.40	2d	1	1.41mi
6568 Vision Ct San Jose, CA	2.0	2.0	1096	$4,200	$3.83	2d	1	1.45mi
6670 Emergent Way San Jose, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$4,953	$4.83	0d	4	1.50mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $459,000 Active 75 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $459,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $459,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $459,000 Active 69 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $459,000 Active 68 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $459,000 Active 67 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $459,000 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $459,000 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $459,000 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $459,000 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $459,000 Active 60 DOM
12. 2026-04-01
    listed $459,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    This home was custom built in 2022 and is move-in ready. At 1536 sq ft this 3 bed/2bath home has all high-end finishes. Granite counter tops and laminate floors throughout. Built with custom features like built-in entertainment center, gas fire place, and a large kitchen island perfect for entertaining. Home has earthquake bracing installed, and backyard has been upgraded with a patio and BBQ set.

13. 2026-04-01
    listed $459,000 Active 400-char remark

    Show marketing remark (400 chars)

    This home was custom built in 2022 and is move-in ready. At 1536 sq ft this 3 bed/2bath home has all high-end finishes. Granite counter tops and laminate floors throughout. Built with custom features like built-in entertainment center, gas fire place, and a large kitchen island perfect for entertaining. Home has earthquake bracing installed, and backyard has been upgraded with a patio and BBQ set.

14. 2026-02-26
    historical
15. 2026-01-08
    price
16. 2025-09-15
    listed Active
17. 2005-11-30
    historical
18. 2005-11-16
    soldstatus $60,000
19. 2005-10-04
    listed $62,990

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low FEMA zone D · 5% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 19 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $49,604
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,711
• − Property taxes: −$6,885
• − Insurance: −$2,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,968
• − Management: −$3,968
• − Depreciation: −$13,353
• Taxable loss: −$6,577
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,578
• After-tax cash flow: $2,701/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oak Grove Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0627810
• Math proficiency: 47% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $92,404
• Composite: 49.23/100
• National rank: #4382
• State rank: #339 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Jose

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #2559

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jose, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 954,479
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 69,677
• Household income: $144,276
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2239.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 35% Hispanic / Latino 29% Asian 27% Two or more races 18% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 17% Vietnamese 7% Other Indo-European 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1261.30%
• Current HPI: 380.1046
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.84%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+628.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $459,000 MLSListings
• 2026-04-01 Listed $459,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-02-26 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-09-15 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2005-11-30 Listing Removed — MLSListings
• 2005-11-16 Sold (MLS) $60,000 MLSListings
• 2005-10-04 Listed $62,990 MLSListings