10217 FM 773

Murchison, TX 75778

$149,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 929 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Active · 118 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,100/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax + insurance: −$177
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-94/mo
• Annual: $-1,124/yr
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $41,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (26.6% below list).
• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $110k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,285 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Murchison ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #726 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Murchison El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 175 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.