10217 FM 773 · Murchison, TX 75778

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 929 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 2025 0.30 ac lot $161/sqft · 10% below area Est $213k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

YOUR COUNTRY HOME AWAITS! This SPACIOUS 2025 manufactured home is like new on 0.30 ACRES in Murchison. Inside, you'll find an open-concept layout, featuring a large living room with abundant natural light. Luxury wood look vinyl flooring in main area of the home and electric wall mounted recessed fireplace. The 3 bed, 2 bath move-in ready home has large rooms & storage throughout. Down the hallway, you'll find a guest bathroom with a shower-tub combo, two guest-kids' bedrooms, and a welcoming master suite with its own bath. Large laundry room. Nice shade trees on the lot to sit in the yard to enjoy nature. No City Taxes! Bring your personal touches and make this beautiful home your own. The home is considered Real Property and has not been moved from this original location.

Key facts

• No city taxes
• Shade trees
• Natural light

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• LARGE LAUNDRY ROOM
• SHADE TREES
• NO CITY TAXES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-94 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $110k (26.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (26.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,285 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Murchison ISD (rural): math 40% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #726 of 1,141 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Murchison El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 175 students, 65% FRL).
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 263 units permitted in Henderson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $7k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (26.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.68%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $213,151
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -29.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.59% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $25,069
• Equity at exit: $81,239

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $82,645
• Equity at exit: $137,235

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75778

• Home prices YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,370/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $-94

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $133,348

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-51	+0% $-94	+5% $-136	+10% $-179
Rent	-10% $-181	-5% $-137	+0% $-94	+5% $-50	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-18	-0.5pp $-56	base $-94	+0.5pp $-133	+1.0pp $-172

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9650 Tx-31 Murchison, TX	3.0	2.0	950	$1,100	$1.16	45d	1	0.82mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $149,900 Active 112 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $149,900 Active 111 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $149,900 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $149,900 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-02-11
   listed $149,900 Active 788-char remark

   Show marketing remark (788 chars)

   YOUR COUNTRY HOME AWAITS! This SPACIOUS 2025 manufactured home is like new on 0.30 ACRES in Murchison. Inside, you'll find an open-concept layout, featuring a large living room with abundant natural light. Luxury wood look vinyl flooring in main area of the home and electric wall mounted recessed fireplace. The 3 bed, 2 bath move-in ready home has large rooms & storage throughout. Down the hallway, you'll find a guest bathroom with a shower-tub combo, two guest-kids' bedrooms, and a welcoming master suite with its own bath. Large laundry room. Nice shade trees on the lot to sit in the yard to enjoy nature. No City Taxes! Bring your personal touches and make this beautiful home your own. The home is considered Real Property and has not been moved from this original location.

10. 2026-02-10
    listed $149,900 Active 814-char remark

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    YOUR COUNTRY HOME AWAITS! This SPACIOUS 2025 manufactured home is like new on 0.30 ACRES in Murchison. Inside, you'll find an open-concept layout, featuring a large living room with abundant natural light. Luxury wood look vinyl flooring in main area of the home and electric wall mounted recessed fireplace. The 3 bed, 2 bath move-in ready home has large rooms & storage throughout. Down the hallway, you'll find a guest bathroom with a shower-tub combo, two guest-kids' bedrooms, and a welcoming master suite with its own bath. Large laundry room. Nice shade trees on the lot to sit in the yard to enjoy nature. City Utilities & No City Taxes! Bring your personal touches and make this beautiful home your own. The home is considered Real Property and has not been moved from this original location.

11. 2026-02-10
    listed $149,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (814 chars)

    YOUR COUNTRY HOME AWAITS! This SPACIOUS 2025 manufactured home is like new on 0.30 ACRES in Murchison. Inside, you'll find an open-concept layout, featuring a large living room with abundant natural light. Luxury wood look vinyl flooring in main area of the home and electric wall mounted recessed fireplace. The 3 bed, 2 bath move-in ready home has large rooms & storage throughout. Down the hallway, you'll find a guest bathroom with a shower-tub combo, two guest-kids' bedrooms, and a welcoming master suite with its own bath. Large laundry room. Nice shade trees on the lot to sit in the yard to enjoy nature. City Utilities & No City Taxes! Bring your personal touches and make this beautiful home your own. The home is considered Real Property and has not been moved from this original location.

12. 2011-01-26
    soldstatus
13. 2003-01-08
    soldstatus
14. 2001-08-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,370 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,373/yr (+$114/mo · 100.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,370
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,056
• − Management: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$3,789
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$909
• After-tax cash flow: $-215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Murchison ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832010
• Math proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,237
• Composite: 36.37/100
• National rank: #9369
• State rank: #726 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Murchison

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1285
• US rank: #22389

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing B+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Murchison, TX
• Population (ZIP): 2,987

Population outlook (Henderson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 80,471 people
• By 2030: 80,608 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 80,087 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 78,208 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 72,423 · -10.0%
• By 2100: 61,012 · -24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Henderson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.5) · D 18.0% · R 81.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.8pp toward R · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -63.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.5 2020: R+60.2 2016: R+60.0 2012: R+54.8 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.59%
• Current HPI: 216.4151
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Listed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-02-10 Listed $149,900 GTAR
• 2026-02-10 Listed $149,900 HCBOR
• 2011-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2003-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-08-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,370 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.