2522 E Grant Ave

Fresno, CA 93701

$209,000D

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 938 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,333/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$224
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$280
• Net cashflow: $-267/mo
• Annual: $-3,202/yr
• Cap rate: 4.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.47%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (22.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $133k (36.2% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $133k (36.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#469 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D+, schools D.
• Fresno Unified (urban): math 18% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #327 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 2,426 units permitted in Fresno County in 2024 (296 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fresno County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $209k implies a 82% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.7% in Fresno — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• At $1,333/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($33k/yr) (locally 1072% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?