421 Columbia Ave

Burlington, NC 27217

$191,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,652/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,002
• Tax + insurance: −$219
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $85/mo
• Annual: $1,018/yr
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.90%
• DSCR: 1.08
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $53,480

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $191k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (13.5% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#123 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southern Alamance Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #238 of 475 statewide, top 51%, 685 students, 49% FRL); Southern Alamance High (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B-, #199 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,360 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alamance-Burlington Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 275 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $191k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.