421 Columbia Ave · Burlington, NC 27217

$191,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,706 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1955 0.51 ac lot Est $246k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own an affordable home in the heart of Burlington. Older 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom home priced to sell. Motivated sellers. Instant equity for investors with strong rental potential. Home has a metal roof, newer HVAC and good bones. Make this house your home before it slips away.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Newer hvac
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• NEWER HVAC
• STRONG RENTAL POTENTIAL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking on concrete
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; One level / single-story; Entry level: 1
• Construction: Brick, vinyl siding, wood siding, and frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: No patio or porch; No fencing; Paved roads; City street and state road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Range; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (number of bedrooms not specified)
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Forced air; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfurnished; Has a view; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $191k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $85 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (13.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $165k (13.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.6% in Burlington — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#123 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Alamance-Burlington Schools (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #133 of 178 in NC (top 75%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Southern Alamance Middle (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #238 of 475 statewide, top 51%, 685 students, 49% FRL); Southern Alamance High (math 69% / reading 54%, grade B-, #199 of 535 statewide, top 37%, 1,360 students, 43% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 35% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Alamance-Burlington Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 275 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,466 units permitted in Alamance County in 2024 (403 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alamance County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($185k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $191k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,248 (13.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.90%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $245,664
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1506 N Mebane St	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,677 (-2%)	11mo	$221,000	$132	86
1726 Oklahoma Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,655 (-3%)	7mo	$239,000	$144	74
204 S Beaumont Ave	0.16mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,813 (+6%)	11mo	$265,000	$146	66
1356 Bowman Ave	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-12%)	8mo	$273,500	$182	63
411 Piedmont Way	0.22mi	3/1.5	1,630 (-4%)	23mo	$170,000	$104	61
1708 Piedmont Way	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,612 (-6%)	18mo	$190,000	$118	59
512 Texas Ave	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,577 (-8%)	13mo	$243,900	$155	55
927 Bellvue St	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,676 (-2%)	13mo	$225,000	$134	55
316 Watson Dr	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,613 (-6%)	15mo	$231,400	$143	46
414 N Beaumont Ave	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,800 (+6%)	20mo	$260,000	$144	44
708 Piedmont Way	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,460 (-14%)	21mo	$202,500	$139	42
2015 Landon Ct	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,656 (-3%)	22mo	$285,000	$172	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-28,748
• Equity at exit: $28,479

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,713
• Equity at exit: $16,514

Cash invested: $53,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27217

• Home prices YoY: -22.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 275
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,652 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,002
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,673/yr
• Insurance: −$80
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$347
• Net cashflow: $85

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,545

Max offer price $191,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $193	-5% $139	+0% $85	+5% $31	+10% $-23
Rent	-10% $-46	-5% $20	+0% $85	+5% $150	+10% $215
Rate	-1.0pp $181	-0.5pp $133	base $85	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $-15

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,750
• Closing costs: $5,730
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
910 N Main St Unit A Burlington, NC	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,395	$1.27	15d	1	0.72mi
1055 Baldwin Ridge Rd Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,799	$1.76	15d	19	0.72mi
1900 Morningside Dr Burlington, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$1,500	$1.39	15d	1	0.86mi
721 E Morehead St Burlington, NC	4.0	2.0	1470	$1,550	$1.05	15d	1	1.30mi
212 College St Apt G Graham, NC	2.0	1.5	1050	$1,125	$1.07	23d	1	1.34mi
116 Stagg St Burlington, NC	3.0	2.0	1550	$2,050	$1.32	23d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $191,000 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $191,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $191,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $191,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $196,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $196,000 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $196,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $196,000 Active 51 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $196,000 Active 49 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $196,000 Active 48 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $196,000 Active 47 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $196,000 Active 46 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $196,000 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $196,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $196,000 Active 40 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $196,000 Active 39 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $196,000 Active 38 DOM
18. 2026-05-05
    price $205,000
19. 2026-04-21
    listed $210,000 Active
20. 1995-02-24
    soldstatus $65,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,673 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,673 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,830
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,699
• − Property taxes: −$1,673
• − Insurance: −$955
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,586
• − Management: −$1,586
• − Depreciation: −$5,556
• Taxable loss: −$2,226
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$534
• After-tax cash flow: $1,552/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alamance-Burlington Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,359
• Composite: 29.68/100
• National rank: #6460
• State rank: #133 of 178 in NC

Livability — Burlington

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #7396

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burlington, NC
• County: Alamance County · 173,369 people
• City population: 88,508
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• Population (ZIP): 41,406
• Household income: $51,950
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1040.0

Population outlook (Alamance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 173,381 people
• By 2030: 180,609 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 194,327 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 206,158 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 235,665 · +35.9%
• By 2100: 258,626 · +49.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 7% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Alamance

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.2) · D 45.4% · R 53.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.1pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: -8.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.2 2020: R+8.4 2016: R+12.9 2012: R+14.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.45%
• Current HPI: 259.8107
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• Metro: Burlington, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+213.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $205,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-04-21 Listed $210,000 Hive MLS
• 1995-02-24 Sold (Public Records) $65,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,673 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.