4815 Airway Dr NE #81

Cascade Valley, WA 98837

$84,995B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 131 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,008/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$59
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $1,082/mo
• Annual: $12,981/yr
• Cap rate: 21.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.55%
• DSCR: 3.43
• 1% rule: 2.36%
• Cash to close: $23,799

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#370 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: commute D, employment D, schools F.
• Moses Lake School District (town): math 38% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #198 of 291 in WA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 585 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 559 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grant County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 2.7% in Cascade Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.