4815 Airway Dr NE #81 · Cascade Valley, WA 98837

$84,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,782 sqft · Manufactured public records · 131 Days on market

Built 1978 $48/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a well maintained and updated 3-bedroom home in Harvest Manor Estates Manufactured Home Community. Interior features include newer sheetrock, knotty pine trim and accents, laminate and carpet flooring, LG Smart heat pump with new compressor, vinyl windows, updated lighting and security system. Living room and family room, formal dining room and breakfast nook. Large laundry room with storage. Exterior features include newer roof approximately 2 years old, and a covered porch.

Key facts

• Carpet flooring
• Knotty pine trim
• Laminate flooring

Tags

• NEWER SHEETROCK
• KNOTTY PINE TRIM
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• CARPET FLOORING
• LG SMART HEAT PUMP
• VINYL WINDOWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.6% vs local median 2.7% in Cascade Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#370 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: commute D, employment D, schools F.
• Moses Lake School District (town): math 38% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #198 of 291 in WA (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 585 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 559 units permitted in Grant County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $587 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grant County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 131 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $63k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $74,795 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 131 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.55%
• DSCR: 3.43
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $255,206
• List price: $84,995
• Delta: -66.70%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4815 NE Airway Dr #86	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-3%)	3mo	$74,900	$43	85
8654 Broad St NE	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,782 (0%)	9mo	$285,000	$160	58
8577 Charles	0.63mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,673 (-6%)	16mo	$336,000	$201	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 49.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $49,221
• Equity at exit: $12,673

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.57×
• Total profit: $108,754
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,799 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98837

• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,008 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $281/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $1,082

Break-even live

Break-even rent $639

Max offer price $84,995

Occupancy floor 41%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,249
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
205 March Dr NE Unit Labs Moses Lake, WA	3.0	1.5	1440	$1,750	$1.22	43d	1	0.31mi
7622 McDougal Ave NE Unit 3 Moses Lake, WA	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,300	$1.27	43d	1	0.37mi
7560 McDougal Ave NE Unit C Moses Lake, WA	2.0	2.0	1360	$1,950	$1.43	43d	1	0.43mi
1903 Hickory Rd Moses Lake, WA	3.0	2.5	1743	$2,450	$1.41	43d	1	1.16mi
1118 W Sequoia Rd Moses Lake, WA	3.0	2.0	1235	$2,000	$1.62	43d	1	1.25mi
1013 W Maple Dr Moses Lake, WA	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,875	$1.29	43d	1	1.29mi
1005 W Sequoia Rd Moses Lake, WA	3.0	2.5	1743	$2,095	$1.20	43d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $84,995 Active 131 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $84,995 Active 130 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $84,995 Active 129 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $84,995 Active 128 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $84,995 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $84,995 Active 125 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $84,995 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $84,995 Active 122 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $84,995 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $84,995 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $84,995 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $84,995 Active 116 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $84,995 Active 115 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $84,995 Active 114 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $88,000 Active 113 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $88,000 Active 112 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $88,000 Active 111 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    price $88,000
19. 2026-04-15
    status Active
20. 2026-03-23
    status Pending
21. 2026-02-13
    price $91,500
22. 2026-01-17
    listed $96,000 Active
23. 2000-08-28
    soldstatus $63,322

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $281 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $833 · $69/mo
• Expected delta: +$552/yr (+$46/mo · 196.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 18 unhealthy d/yr today · 18 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,097
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$281
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,928
• − Management: −$1,928
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $12,301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,952
• After-tax cash flow: $10,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Moses Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 5305220
• Math proficiency: 38% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $49,033
• Composite: 39.17/100
• National rank: #8232
• State rank: #198 of 291 in WA

Livability — Cascade Valley

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #14130

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing D- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cascade Valley, WA
• County: Grant County · 61,643 people
• City population: 49,455
• Metro: Moses Lake, WA
• Population (ZIP): 49,455
• Household income: $74,586
• Rent vs Own: 33.4% rent · 66.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1064.0

Population outlook (Grant County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,356 people
• By 2030: 102,107 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 108,318 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 114,712 · +15.5%
• By 2075: 131,376 · +32.2%
• By 2100: 146,163 · +47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 15% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Subsaharan African 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grant

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.5) · D 30.0% · R 67.4% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.9pp toward R · 2008: -27.5pp · 2024: -37.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.5 2020: R+34.4 2016: R+37.9 2012: R+32.6 2008: R+27.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -384.29%
• Current HPI: 208.4574
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.72%
• Metro: Moses Lake, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+39.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $88,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-23 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $91,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-17 Listed $96,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-08-28 Sold (Public Records) $63,322 Public Records

Property tax history

-10.5%/yr

Latest (2021): $281 · -13.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.