2183 Water Ridge Dr

Berlin, MI 48166

$74,000C+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 1995 · SingleFamily · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,299/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax + insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $515/mo
• Annual: $6,178/yr
• Cap rate: 14.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.82%
• DSCR: 2.33
• 1% rule: 1.76%
• Cash to close: $20,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $74k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $72k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $512 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Airport Community Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #170 of 540 in MI (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.