2183 Water Ridge Dr · Berlin, MI 48166

$74,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 41 Days on market

Built 1995 Good condition 4,356 sqft lot Est $55k · 35% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated Home on a Perimeter Lot – Move-In Ready! Set on a beautiful perimeter lot that backs directly to woods and wetlands, this meticulously updated home offers privacy, tranquility, and modern comfort throughout. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the extensive list of recent improvements that make this property truly turnkey. The interior has been thoughtfully refreshed with high-quality updates including a newer roof, newer central air conditioning, all new windows and exterior doors, new appliances, new faucets, new countertops, and updated cabinetry. You'll love the new luxury vinyl plank flooring flowing throughout the main living areas, complemented by new carpet in the bedrooms. The entire home has been freshly painted in Sherwin Williams Repose Gray with crisp white trim, paired with new trim, new door and cabinet hardware, new lighting, and new blinds for a clean, contemporary feel. Inside, the spacious layout features a massive living room anchored by a cozy wood-burning fireplace, a gorgeous wrap-around kitchen, a formal dining room, and a convenient laundry room with extra storage space. The primary suite is complete with a generous walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom featuring a new vanity top and mirror, new linen cabinets, and a shower stall. The other end of the home has two additional bedrooms with another updated bathroom with a new toilet, vanity and mirror. Step outside to enjoy the freshly painted 21x10 deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy and security, while the oversized shed with roll-up door offers excellent storage for tools, equipment, or outdoor gear. Lot rent is $599 plus trash and water. This home has been updated from top to bottom with nothing left to do but move right in. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a beautifully refreshed home in a peaceful, wooded setting!

Key facts

• Perimeter lot
• New exterior doors
• Backs to woods

Tags

• PERIMETER LOT
• BACKS TO WOODS
• NEWER ROOF
• NEW CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW EXTERIOR DOORS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot roughly 0.1 acre (50 x 100); Road surface is paved; Pets allowed with breed restrictions; contact for details; Directions available
• HOA & community: Private maintained road; Private road frontage; Subdivision: NEWPORT FARMS SUB; Sidewalks in the community

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Parking pad; Assigned parking; No garage
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric with circuit breakers and 220V; Cable available; Underground utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry with steps
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Composition roof; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Built area above grade: 1,568
• Exterior features: Deck and porch; Fenced backyard; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: ENERGY STAR qualified windows; Living room wood-burning fireplace; 6 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $74k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $74k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Airport Community Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #170 of 540 in MI (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 264 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $512 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $71,780 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.82%
• DSCR: 2.33
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $54,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9094 W Timberview Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,605 (+2%)	13mo	$44,000	$27	78
9075 Water Ridge Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+6%)	12mo	$59,000	$35	72
9256 Canyon Trail Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	15mo	$55,000	$33	70
1983 Oak St	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	1mo	$52,000	$31	66
9296 Iron Ridge Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+7%)	23mo	$68,900	$41	62
2074 Decoy Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	12mo	$65,000	$36	59
8737 Daniel Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-11%)	2mo	$33,500	$24	58
8775 Joshua Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,624 (+4%)	21mo	$42,000	$26	55
9481 Maple Ridge Dr Dr	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,450 (-8%)	14mo	$325,000	$224	42
8795 Davey Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	13mo	$60,000	$33	39
9005 Birch Pointe Dr	0.68mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,783 (+14%)	3mo	$325,000	$182	36
9037 Maple Ridge Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,800 (+15%)	16mo	$311,000	$173	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.00×
• Total profit: $20,817
• Equity at exit: $11,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.92×
• Total profit: $60,427
• Equity at exit: $6,398

Cash invested: $20,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48166

• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,299 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$388
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$92 /mo · $1,110/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $647

Max offer price $74,000

Occupancy floor 55%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $566	-5% $540	+0% $515	+5% $489	+10% $464
Rent	-10% $412	-5% $464	+0% $515	+5% $566	+10% $617
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $534	base $515	+0.5pp $496	+1.0pp $476

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,500
• Closing costs: $2,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
Paree St Frenchtown Charter Twp, MI	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,299	$1.10	5d	1	1.00mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $74,000 Active 41 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,000 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,000 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,000 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,000 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $74,000 Active 30 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $74,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $74,000 Active 24 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $74,000 Active 23 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    listed $74,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (1930 chars)

    Updated Home on a Perimeter Lot – Move-In Ready! Set on a beautiful perimeter lot that backs directly to woods and wetlands, this meticulously updated home offers privacy, tranquility, and modern comfort throughout. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the extensive list of recent improvements that make this property truly turnkey. The interior has been thoughtfully refreshed with high-quality updates including a newer roof, newer central air conditioning, all new windows and exterior doors, new appliances, new faucets, new countertops, and updated cabinetry. You'll love the new luxury vinyl plank flooring flowing throughout the main living areas, complemented by new carpet in the bedrooms. The entire home has been freshly painted in Sherwin Williams Repose Gray with crisp white trim, paired with new trim, new door and cabinet hardware, new lighting, and new blinds for a clean, contemporary feel. Inside, the spacious layout features a massive living room anchored by a cozy wood-burning fireplace, a gorgeous wrap-around kitchen, a formal dining room, and a convenient laundry room with extra storage space. The primary suite is complete with a generous walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom featuring a new vanity top and mirror, new linen cabinets, and a shower stall. The other end of the home has two additional bedrooms with another updated bathroom with a new toilet, vanity and mirror. Step outside to enjoy the freshly painted 21x10 deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy and security, while the oversized shed with roll-up door offers excellent storage for tools, equipment, or outdoor gear. Lot rent is $599 plus trash and water. This home has been updated from top to bottom with nothing left to do but move right in. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a beautifully refreshed home in a peaceful, wooded setting!

16. 2026-05-08
    listed $74,000 Active 1930-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1930 chars)

    Updated Home on a Perimeter Lot – Move-In Ready! Set on a beautiful perimeter lot that backs directly to woods and wetlands, this meticulously updated home offers privacy, tranquility, and modern comfort throughout. From the moment you arrive, you'll appreciate the extensive list of recent improvements that make this property truly turnkey. The interior has been thoughtfully refreshed with high-quality updates including a newer roof, newer central air conditioning, all new windows and exterior doors, new appliances, new faucets, new countertops, and updated cabinetry. You'll love the new luxury vinyl plank flooring flowing throughout the main living areas, complemented by new carpet in the bedrooms. The entire home has been freshly painted in Sherwin Williams Repose Gray with crisp white trim, paired with new trim, new door and cabinet hardware, new lighting, and new blinds for a clean, contemporary feel. Inside, the spacious layout features a massive living room anchored by a cozy wood-burning fireplace, a gorgeous wrap-around kitchen, a formal dining room, and a convenient laundry room with extra storage space. The primary suite is complete with a generous walk-in closet and an en-suite bathroom featuring a new vanity top and mirror, new linen cabinets, and a shower stall. The other end of the home has two additional bedrooms with another updated bathroom with a new toilet, vanity and mirror. Step outside to enjoy the freshly painted 21x10 deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The fully fenced backyard provides privacy and security, while the oversized shed with roll-up door offers excellent storage for tools, equipment, or outdoor gear. Lot rent is $599 plus trash and water. This home has been updated from top to bottom with nothing left to do but move right in. Don't miss this rare opportunity to own a beautifully refreshed home in a peaceful, wooded setting!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,145
• − Property taxes: −$1,110
• − Insurance: −$370
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,247
• − Management: −$1,247
• − Depreciation: −$2,153
• Taxable income: $5,316
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,276
• After-tax cash flow: $4,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This move-in ready home features updated interiors, new appliances, and a fresh exterior, making it an attractive option for both buyers and renters.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both interior paint — refreshes the space and makes it more inviting

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both interior paint — refreshes the space and makes it more inviting ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Airport Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2601980
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,881
• Composite: 36.69/100
• National rank: #4601
• State rank: #170 of 540 in MI

Livability — Berlin

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,746

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,439 people
• By 2030: 140,033 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 128,408 · -11.1%
• By 2050: 115,024 · -20.4%
• By 2075: 87,273 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 63,110 · -56.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 9% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.1) · D 35.7% · R 62.9% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.3pp · 2024: -27.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.1 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.1 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.69%
• Current HPI: 178.1688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $74,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-08 Listed $74,000 REALCOMP