11161 Roland Parks Rd

Chance, MD 21821

$274,900D+

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,550 sqft · Built 1977 · SingleFamily · Active · 169 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$717
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-578/mo
• Annual: $-6,940/yr
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-578 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (37.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (27.2% below list).
• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#427 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Somerset 6/7 Intermediate School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #170 of 225 statewide, top 77%, 396 students, 73% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $275k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?