11161 Roland Parks Rd · Chance, MD 21821

$274,900

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 169 Days on market

Built 1977 0.50 ac lot $177/sqft · 26% below area Est $370k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your island escape in Chance, Maryland—a serene coastal retreat for true nature lovers, just steps from the Tangier Sound and a short boat ride to the Chesapeake Bay. This beautifully updated three-bedroom, three-bath home offers a sought-after first-floor primary suite, with two generously sized upstairs bedrooms featuring ample closet space. Designed for indoor-outdoor living, the home features three private screened-in porches—perfect for enjoying morning coffee, evening breezes, and peaceful sunsets year-round. Two oversized sheds (12x24 and 12x20) provide exceptional space for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Inside, you’ll appreciate fresh paint throughout and brand-new heating and cooling systems, making this home truly move-in ready. Whether you’re searching for a weekend getaway or a full-time coastal residence, this property offers comfort, functionality, and charm. As an added bonus, the community features private beach access and boat access, offering effortless entry to some of the Bay’s best boating, fishing, and outdoor adventures—right from your own neighborhood. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a peaceful waterfront retreat in a truly special setting. And for a bit of fun—keep an eye out for a hidden Mickey during your tour!

Key facts

• Oversized sheds
• Fresh paint
• Boat access

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE SCREENED-IN PORCHES
• OVERSIZED SHEDS
• FRESH PAINT
• PRIVATE BEACH ACCESS
• BOAT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-578 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $173k (37.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (27.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#427 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Somerset 6/7 Intermediate School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #170 of 225 statewide, top 77%, 396 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 169 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $24k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $275k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,741 (37.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 169 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.63%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.37%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $369,509
• List price: $274,900
• Delta: -25.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23659 Thomas Price Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,456 (-6%)	6mo	$230,000	$158	63
23494 Temple Ln	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,440 (-7%)	20mo	$340,000	$236	33
23501 Temple Ln	0.67mi	3/3.0	1,716 (+11%)	20mo	$379,900	$221	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $113,075
• Equity at exit: $247,652

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.71×
• Total profit: $362,327
• Equity at exit: $534,070

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21821

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$176 /mo · $2,107/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-578

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,732

Max offer price $172,741

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-423	-5% $-500	+0% $-578	+5% $-656	+10% $-734
Rent	-10% $-736	-5% $-657	+0% $-578	+5% $-499	+10% $-420
Rate	-1.0pp $-440	-0.5pp $-508	base $-578	+0.5pp $-650	+1.0pp $-722

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23451 Deal Island Rd Deal Island, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	15d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 32 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,900 Active 169 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 166 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 165 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 164 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $274,900 Active 161 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 160 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,900 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,900 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $274,900 Active 156 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $274,900 Active 155 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $274,900 Active 150 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,900 Active 149 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,900 Active 148 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $274,900 Active 147 DOM
16. 2026-05-20
    price $274,900 1327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1327 chars)

    Welcome to your island escape in Chance, Maryland—a serene coastal retreat for true nature lovers, just steps from the Tangier Sound and a short boat ride to the Chesapeake Bay. This beautifully updated three-bedroom, three-bath home offers a sought-after first-floor primary suite, with two generously sized upstairs bedrooms featuring ample closet space. Designed for indoor-outdoor living, the home features three private screened-in porches—perfect for enjoying morning coffee, evening breezes, and peaceful sunsets year-round. Two oversized sheds (12x24 and 12x20) provide exceptional space for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Inside, you’ll appreciate fresh paint throughout and brand-new heating and cooling systems, making this home truly move-in ready. Whether you’re searching for a weekend getaway or a full-time coastal residence, this property offers comfort, functionality, and charm. As an added bonus, the community features private beach access and boat access, offering effortless entry to some of the Bay’s best boating, fishing, and outdoor adventures—right from your own neighborhood. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a peaceful waterfront retreat in a truly special setting. And for a bit of fun—keep an eye out for a hidden Mickey during your tour!

17. 2026-01-03
    listed $299,000 Active 1327-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1327 chars)

    Welcome to your island escape in Chance, Maryland—a serene coastal retreat for true nature lovers, just steps from the Tangier Sound and a short boat ride to the Chesapeake Bay. This beautifully updated three-bedroom, three-bath home offers a sought-after first-floor primary suite, with two generously sized upstairs bedrooms featuring ample closet space. Designed for indoor-outdoor living, the home features three private screened-in porches—perfect for enjoying morning coffee, evening breezes, and peaceful sunsets year-round. Two oversized sheds (12x24 and 12x20) provide exceptional space for storage, hobbies, or a workshop. Inside, you’ll appreciate fresh paint throughout and brand-new heating and cooling systems, making this home truly move-in ready. Whether you’re searching for a weekend getaway or a full-time coastal residence, this property offers comfort, functionality, and charm. As an added bonus, the community features private beach access and boat access, offering effortless entry to some of the Bay’s best boating, fishing, and outdoor adventures—right from your own neighborhood. Don’t miss this rare opportunity to own a peaceful waterfront retreat in a truly special setting. And for a bit of fun—keep an eye out for a hidden Mickey during your tour!

18. 2025-11-24
    historical
19. 2025-09-15
    price $329,000
20. 2025-07-28
    price $359,000
21. 2025-06-10
    listed $369,000 Active
22. 2010-06-17
    soldstatus $170,000
23. 2009-10-28
    historical
24. 2009-10-22
    listed $179,999
25. 2008-01-02
    listed $224,000
26. 2007-05-21
    historical
27. 2006-11-20
    listed $390,000
28. 2006-11-12
    historical
29. 2006-05-02
    listed
30. 1998-05-21
    historical
31. 1997-11-30
    listed $16,000
32. 1990-11-01
    soldstatus $49,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,107 · $176/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,552 · $213/mo
• Expected delta: +$445/yr (+$37/mo · 21.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$2,107
• − Insurance: −$6,493
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable loss: −$11,836
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,841
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,099/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Chance

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #24063

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chance, MD
• Population (ZIP): 736

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Polish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.66%
• Current HPI: 299.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+455.4% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $274,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-03 Listed $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-11-24 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $329,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $359,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-10 Listed $369,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-17 Sold (MLS) $170,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-10-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-10-22 Listed $179,999 BRIGHT MLS
• 2008-01-02 Listed $224,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2007-05-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-11-20 Listed $390,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2006-11-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-05-02 Listed — MRIS
• 1998-05-21 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-11-30 Listed $16,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1990-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,107 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.