43740 Sunset Dr

Paisley, FL 32767

$245,000D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · Built 2025 · SingleFamily · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,650/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax + insurance: −$408
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $-390/mo
• Annual: $-4,676/yr
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.67%
• Cash to close: $68,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-390 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $189k (23.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $165k (32.7% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($230k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $165k (32.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $24k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#563 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Spring Creek Charter School (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,288 of 2,144 statewide, top 62%, 630 students, 100% FRL, charter); Umatilla Middle School (math 58% / reading 46%, grade C+, #217 of 571 statewide, top 40%, 595 students, 57% FRL); Umatilla High School (math 24% / reading 29%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 861 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 49% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?