421 Walton

Pettus, TX 78146

$128,500B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Built 2016 · MultiFamily · Active · 274 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,990/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$674
• Tax + insurance: −$214
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $684/mo
• Annual: $8,209/yr
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.81%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $35,980

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $128k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $684 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• It's been on market 274 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($888 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#846 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Pettus ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #829 of 1,141 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Bee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bee County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 274 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exterior siding — Missing panels and peeling paint.
• Major: Roof — Missing shingles and poor condition.
• Major: Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt appearance.
• Moderate: Bathrooms — Outdated fixtures and decor need updating.
• Moderate: Kitchen — Cluttered counters and outdated decor need cleaning and updating.