421 Walton · Pettus, TX 78146

$128,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · MultiFamily · 274 Days on market

Built 2016 Fair condition 7,500 sqft lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

Income producing investment property with potential for more. Property includes 2/2, 2016 manufactured home, 1/1/ cottage and an additional r. v. hook-up. Both units have long term tenants. Both units have nice porches for enjoying the fresh outdoors. 2/2 has open living/dining floor plan with split bedrooms. Walking distance to schools.

Key facts

• Manufactured home
• Long term tenants
• 7,500 sq ft lot

Tags

• MANUFACTURED HOME
• LONG TERM TENANTS
• OPEN LIVING DINING FLOOR PLAN
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $128k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $684 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#846 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, schools F.
• Pettus ISD (rural): math 36% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #829 of 1,141 in TX (top 73%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Bee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($888 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bee County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 274 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $113,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 274 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.81%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $59,078
• Equity at exit: $57,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 29.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.15×
• Total profit: $149,315
• Equity at exit: $89,045

Cash invested: $35,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78146

• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$674
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$161 /mo · $1,928/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$418
• Net cashflow: $684

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,124

Max offer price $128,500

Occupancy floor 61%

2-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
1× unit	2	2	$1,011
1× unit	1	1	$978
Total (2 units)			$1,990

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,125
• Closing costs: $3,855
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
520 North St Unit 3 Pettus, TX	2.0	1.5	963	$1,050	$1.09	21d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $128,500 Active 274 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,500 Active 273 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,500 Active 272 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,500 Active 271 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,500 Active 270 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $128,500 Active 268 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $128,500 Active 267 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,500 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,500 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,500 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $128,500 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,500 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,500 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,500 Active 256 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,500 Active 255 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $128,500 Active 254 DOM
17. 2025-12-20
    price $128,500 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Income producing investment property with potential for more. Property includes 2/2, 2016 manufactured home, 1/1/ cottage and an additional r. v. hook-up. Both units have long term tenants. Both units have nice porches for enjoying the fresh outdoors. 2/2 has open living/dining floor plan with split bedrooms. Walking distance to schools.

18. 2025-12-19
    price $128,500 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Income producing investment property with potential for more. Property includes 2/2, 2016 manufactured home, 1/1/ cottage and an additional r. v. hook-up. Both units have long term tenants. Both units have nice porches for enjoying the fresh outdoors. 2/2 has open living/dining floor plan with split bedrooms. Walking distance to schools.

19. 2025-09-19
    listed $132,500 Active 339-char remark

    Show marketing remark (339 chars)

    Income producing investment property with potential for more. Property includes 2/2, 2016 manufactured home, 1/1/ cottage and an additional r. v. hook-up. Both units have long term tenants. Both units have nice porches for enjoying the fresh outdoors. 2/2 has open living/dining floor plan with split bedrooms. Walking distance to schools.

20. 2025-09-16
    listed $132,500 Active 340-char remark

    Show marketing remark (340 chars)

    Income producing investment property with potential for more. Property includes 2/2, 2016 manufactured home, 1/1/ cottage and an additional r. v. hook-up. Both units have long term tenants. Both units have nice porches for enjoying the fresh outdoors. 2/2 has open living/dining floor plan with split bedrooms. Walking distance to schools.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,880
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,928
• − Insurance: −$642
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,910
• − Management: −$1,910
• − Depreciation: −$3,738
• Taxable income: $6,553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,573
• After-tax cash flow: $6,636/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This multi-family property requires moderate renovations to improve its exterior, interior, and landscaping. Upgrading the siding, roof, and bathrooms will significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exterior siding — Missing panels and peeling paint.
• Major Roof — Missing shingles and poor condition.
• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt appearance.
• Moderate Bathrooms — Outdated fixtures and decor need updating.
• Moderate Kitchen — Cluttered counters and outdated decor need cleaning and updating.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value.
• Both Replace exterior siding and roof — New siding and roof will significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and curb appeal can attract more tenants and buyers.
• Both Update bathrooms and kitchen — Modernizing these spaces can increase the home's value and attract more tenants and buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exterior siding · Missing panels and peeling paint.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · Missing shingles and poor condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · Outdated fixtures and decor need updating.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Kitchen · Cluttered counters and outdated decor need cleaning and updating.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$51,000–180,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls and trim — Fresh paint can improve the overall appearance and value. ↑
• Both Replace exterior siding and roof — New siding and roof will significantly improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and curb appeal can attract more tenants and buyers. ↑
• Both Update bathrooms and kitchen — Modernizing these spaces can increase the home's value and attract more tenants and buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pettus ISD
• NCES district ID: 4834770
• Math proficiency: 36% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,570
• Composite: 33.83/100
• National rank: #10377
• State rank: #829 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Pettus

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #846
• US rank: #15296

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pettus, TX
• Population (ZIP): 740

Population outlook (Bee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,003 people
• By 2030: 36,447 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 39,810 · +13.7%
• By 2050: 43,525 · +24.3%
• By 2075: 51,766 · +47.9%
• By 2100: 53,434 · +52.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 50% White 42% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 53%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Bee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.1pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+15.4 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+10.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-20 Price Changed $128,500 RAAR
• 2025-12-19 Price Changed $128,500 CBMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $132,500 RAAR
• 2025-09-16 Listed $132,500 CBMLS