651 Us-209

Otisville, NY 12729

$169,900B

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Built 1895 · SingleFamily · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,073/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax + insurance: −$405
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $342/mo
• Annual: $4,102/yr
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.62%
• DSCR: 1.38
• 1% rule: 1.22%
• Cash to close: $47,572

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $108 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#459 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Port Jervis City School District (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #451 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: N A Hamilton Bicentennial School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 464 students, 54% FRL); Port Jervis Middle School (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #569 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 379 students, 59% FRL); Port Jervis Senior High School (math 87% / reading 95%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 750 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.4% in Otisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.