651 Us-209 · Otisville, NY 12729

$169,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1895 6,534 sqft lot $105/sqft · 46% below area Est $312k · 46% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This rare and unique property offers a wealth of charm and history, perfect for those seeking a creative restoration project. Originally a church, it has been converted into a single-family home with a studio on the main level. The studio features a kitchen, a spacious bathroom, and plenty of possibilities. Situated on a serene 0.50-acre lot, the property boasts a natural spring, a partially fenced yard, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you'll find original features that exude character, including large windows that flood the space with natural light, high ceilings, and wood floors. A balcony overlooks the main level, adding to the property's distinctive appeal. Conveniently located near the Neversink Campgrounds, shopping, the NYS Rail Trail, and NYC railroad transportation, this property offers both charm and accessibility. The owner notes that the property is grandfathered for mixed-use, opening up a world of possibilities. Whether you dream of a unique residence, a studio space, or something entirely different, this property is ready for your imagination to bring it to life! Don't miss this extraordinary opportunity--schedule a viewing today!

Key facts

• Large windows
• Natural spring
• Original features

Tags

• STUDIO ON THE MAIN LEVEL
• NATURAL SPRING
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• ORIGINAL FEATURES
• LARGE WINDOWS
• HIGH CEILINGS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.7% vs local median 2.4% in Otisville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#459 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Port Jervis City School District (rural): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #451 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: N A Hamilton Bicentennial School (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #988 of 2,108 statewide, top 49%, 464 students, 54% FRL); Port Jervis Middle School (math 22% / reading 35%, grade F, #569 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 379 students, 59% FRL); Port Jervis Senior High School (math 87% / reading 95%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 750 students, 55% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $108 appreciation (0.1% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (0.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $48k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $120k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1895 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,706 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1895 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.62%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $312,270
• List price: $169,900
• Delta: -45.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

0.06% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.37×
• Total profit: $17,418
• Equity at exit: $49,875

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $66,500
• Equity at exit: $60,385

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12729

• Home prices YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,073 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$334 /mo · $4,008/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$435
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,640

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $438	-5% $390	+0% $342	+5% $294	+10% $246
Rent	-10% $178	-5% $260	+0% $342	+5% $424	+10% $506
Rate	-1.0pp $427	-0.5pp $385	base $342	+0.5pp $298	+1.0pp $253

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,900 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,900 Active 66 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,900 Active 65 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,900 Active 64 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,900 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $169,900 Active 61 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,900 Active 60 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $169,900 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,900 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $169,900 Active 56 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,900 Active 55 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,900 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,900 Active 50 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,900 Active 49 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,900 Active 48 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $169,900 Active 47 DOM
17. 2026-04-13
    price $169,900 1184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1184 chars)

    This rare and unique property offers a wealth of charm and history, perfect for those seeking a creative restoration project. Originally a church, it has been converted into a single-family home with a studio on the main level. The studio features a kitchen, a spacious bathroom, and plenty of possibilities. Situated on a serene 0.50-acre lot, the property boasts a natural spring, a partially fenced yard, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you'll find original features that exude character, including large windows that flood the space with natural light, high ceilings, and wood floors. A balcony overlooks the main level, adding to the property's distinctive appeal. Conveniently located near the Neversink Campgrounds, shopping, the NYS Rail Trail, and NYC railroad transportation, this property offers both charm and accessibility. The owner notes that the property is grandfathered for mixed-use, opening up a world of possibilities. Whether you dream of a unique residence, a studio space, or something entirely different, this property is ready for your imagination to bring it to life! Don't miss this extraordinary opportunity--schedule a viewing today!

18. 2026-04-13
    listed $179,900 Active 1184-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1184 chars)

    This rare and unique property offers a wealth of charm and history, perfect for those seeking a creative restoration project. Originally a church, it has been converted into a single-family home with a studio on the main level. The studio features a kitchen, a spacious bathroom, and plenty of possibilities. Situated on a serene 0.50-acre lot, the property boasts a natural spring, a partially fenced yard, and plenty of room to enjoy the outdoors. Inside, you'll find original features that exude character, including large windows that flood the space with natural light, high ceilings, and wood floors. A balcony overlooks the main level, adding to the property's distinctive appeal. Conveniently located near the Neversink Campgrounds, shopping, the NYS Rail Trail, and NYC railroad transportation, this property offers both charm and accessibility. The owner notes that the property is grandfathered for mixed-use, opening up a world of possibilities. Whether you dream of a unique residence, a studio space, or something entirely different, this property is ready for your imagination to bring it to life! Don't miss this extraordinary opportunity--schedule a viewing today!

19. 2026-01-23
    historical
20. 2025-01-22
    listed $179,900 Active
21. 2024-08-15
    status Pending
22. 2024-06-29
    historical
23. 2024-02-14
    price $179,900
24. 2023-10-16
    price $189,900
25. 2023-09-14
    listed $199,900 Active
26. 2022-09-22
    soldstatus $120,000
27. 2022-09-14
    soldstatus $120,000 Closed
28. 2022-08-05
    status Pending
29. 2022-07-01
    price $149,000
30. 2022-06-23
    price $159,000
31. 2022-03-28
    price $179,000
32. 2022-03-14
    price $129,000
33. 2022-03-08
    price $145,000
34. 2022-02-28
    listed $174,900 Active
35. 1993-10-18
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,008 · $334/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 7% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$4,008
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,990
• − Management: −$1,990
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable income: $1,578
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$379
• After-tax cash flow: $3,724/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Port Jervis City School District
• NCES district ID: 3623520
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $44,506
• Composite: 39.33/100
• National rank: #3984
• State rank: #451 of 590 in NY

Livability — Otisville

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #459
• US rank: #7992

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,940
• Population (ZIP): 1,307

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 14% Asian 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 13% Romanian 6% Iranian 5%
• Foreign-born: 16% · China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Chinese 11% Spanish 4% French/Haitian/Cajun 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.06%
• Current HPI: 341.1758
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+324.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $169,900 HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $179,900 HVCRMLS
• 2026-01-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-22 Listed $179,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-08-15 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-29 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-14 Price Changed $179,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-10-16 Price Changed $189,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-14 Listed $199,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-14 Sold (MLS) $120,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-05 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-01 Price Changed $149,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-23 Price Changed $159,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-28 Price Changed $179,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-14 Price Changed $129,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-03-08 Price Changed $145,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-28 Listed $174,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-10-18 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,008 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.