255 W 3rd St

Newburg, MO 65550

$34,900B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,266 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,035/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax + insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $586/mo
• Annual: $7,028/yr
• Cap rate: 26.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.92%
• DSCR: 4.20
• 1% rule: 2.96%
• Cash to close: $9,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $586 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($241 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#758 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Newburg R-II (rural): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #299 of 324 in MO (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 42 active listings in the ZIP; 162 units permitted in Phelps County in 2024 (83 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Phelps County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.