255 W 3rd St · Newburg, MO 65550

$34,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,266 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1920 0.35 ac lot $15/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fixer Upper with Character in Newburg, MO-Cash Only. Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located within the city limits of Newburg. Built from unique giraffe sandstone, this property is full of charm and character you won’t find just anywhere. This home is a true blank slate, ready for your vision and updates from the ground up. With city utilities and a convenient in-town location, it offers great potential for an investment property, rental, or personal project. An added bonus—a vacant lot and 3-car garage located behind the home will convey, offering extra space, storage, or future building potential. Bring your ideas and make this one your own!

Key facts

• Vacant lot
• 3-car garage
• In-town location

Tags

• IN-TOWN LOCATION
• VACANT LOT
• 3-CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $35k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $586 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $34k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#758 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Newburg R-II (rural): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #299 of 324 in MO (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 162 units permitted in Phelps County in 2024 (83 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($241 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Phelps County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($34k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $33,853 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 71.92%
• DSCR: 4.20
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,177
• List price: $34,900
• Delta: -55.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 & 15 W 5th St	0.19mi	3/1.5	2,307 (+2%)	4mo	$139,900	$61	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 76.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.25×
• Total profit: $41,517
• Equity at exit: $15,693

10-year hold

• IRR: 76.0%
• Equity multiple: 10.78×
• Total profit: $95,536
• Equity at exit: $24,184

Cash invested: $9,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65550

• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,035 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$183
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $409/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $586

Break-even live

Break-even rent $293

Max offer price $34,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $605	-5% $596	+0% $586	+5% $576	+10% $566
Rent	-10% $504	-5% $545	+0% $586	+5% $627	+10% $667
Rate	-1.0pp $603	-0.5pp $595	base $586	+0.5pp $577	+1.0pp $567

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,725
• Closing costs: $1,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $34,900 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $34,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $34,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-04-06
   listed $34,900 Active 684-char remark

   Show marketing remark (684 chars)

   Fixer Upper with Character in Newburg, MO-Cash Only. Opportunity awaits with this 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located within the city limits of Newburg. Built from unique giraffe sandstone, this property is full of charm and character you won’t find just anywhere. This home is a true blank slate, ready for your vision and updates from the ground up. With city utilities and a convenient in-town location, it offers great potential for an investment property, rental, or personal project. An added bonus—a vacant lot and 3-car garage located behind the home will convey, offering extra space, storage, or future building potential. Bring your ideas and make this one your own!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $409 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $409 · $34/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,415
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,955
• − Property taxes: −$409
• − Insurance: −$174
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$993
• − Management: −$993
• − Depreciation: −$1,015
• Taxable income: $6,875
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,650
• After-tax cash flow: $5,378/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburg R-II
• NCES district ID: 2922140
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $39,225
• Composite: 18.08/100
• National rank: #8976
• State rank: #299 of 324 in MO

Livability — Newburg

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #758
• US rank: #23594

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newburg, MO
• Population (ZIP): 3,119

Population outlook (Phelps County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,188 people
• By 2030: 43,524 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 41,211 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 38,977 · -11.8%
• By 2075: 33,846 · -23.4%
• By 2100: 27,828 · -37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Phelps

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.9) · D 27.9% · R 70.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -22.2pp · 2024: -42.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.9 2020: R+40.1 2016: R+42.9 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $34,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $409 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.