281 Lambeth Rd

Flomaton, AL 36441

$165,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,240 sqft · Built 2000 · Manufactured · Pending · 62 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,323/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$278
• Net cashflow: $-95/mo
• Annual: $-1,140/yr
• Cap rate: 5.60%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.47%
• DSCR: 0.89
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-95 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $151k (8.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $132k (19.8% below list).
• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($155k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $132k (19.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (5.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#446 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Escambia County (town): math 17% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #83 of 129 in AL (top 64%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Flomaton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 54%, grade D, #135 of 627 statewide, top 22%, 486 students, 55% FRL); Flomaton High School (math 19% / reading 40%, grade F, #70 of 305 statewide, top 27%, 511 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools average 50% FRL vs 70% district-wide (20 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Escambia County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.