3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,275 sqft ·
Built 1974
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 12 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,489/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$970
Tax + insurance
−$192
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$313
Net cashflow
$14/mo
Annual
$168/yr
Cap rate
6.38%
Cash-on-cash
0.32%
DSCR
1.01
1% rule
0.80%
Cash to close
$51,800
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $14 ($168/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $149k (19.5% below list).
Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
Recommended offer: $149k (19.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 63/100 on livability (#311 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
Mccracken County (town): math 41% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #16 of 165 in KY (top 10%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Lone Oak Elementary School (math 52% / reading 52%, grade C-, #82 of 676 statewide, top 13%, 520 students, 58% FRL); Lone Oak Middle School (math 40% / reading 53%, grade D+, #28 of 217 statewide, top 13%, 796 students, 47% FRL); Mccracken County High School (math 30% / reading 44%, grade F, #58 of 254 statewide, top 27%, 1,999 students, 43% FRL).
Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; 187 units permitted in McCracken County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
McCracken County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $146k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Massac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-QHBY14DKDRN7G5
· Data 1 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29