803 Jackson St

Montpelier, ID 83254

$85,000B

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 114 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,292/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax + insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $501/mo
• Annual: $6,015/yr
• Cap rate: 13.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.27%
• DSCR: 2.12
• 1% rule: 1.52%
• Cash to close: $23,800

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#24 in ID, #3,221 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, commute F.
• Bear Lake County District (rural): math 48% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #25 of 92 in ID (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: A J Winters Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #88 of 357 statewide, top 28%, 291 students, 48% FRL); Bear Lake Middle School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D+, #43 of 109 statewide, top 41%, 289 students, 38% FRL); Bear Lake High School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #26 of 169 statewide, top 17%, 352 students, 29% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Bear Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bear Lake County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.