803 Jackson St · Montpelier, ID 83254

$85,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,260 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1940 6,098 sqft lot ↓ 32% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 113 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot around 0.14 acres

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family detached residence; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Asbestos siding (or material); 1,260 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Front porch; Wood fencing

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (2 on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating
• Interior features: Has basement with partial crawl space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $501 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#24 in ID, #3,221 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, employment D, commute F.
• Bear Lake County District (rural): math 48% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #25 of 92 in ID (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: A J Winters Elementary School (math 57% / reading 57%, grade C+, #88 of 357 statewide, top 28%, 291 students, 48% FRL); Bear Lake Middle School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D+, #43 of 109 statewide, top 41%, 289 students, 38% FRL); Bear Lake High School (math 42% / reading 67%, grade C-, #26 of 169 statewide, top 17%, 352 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 107 active listings in the ZIP; 86 units permitted in Bear Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bear Lake County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.27%
• DSCR: 2.12
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $18,129
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.39×
• Total profit: $56,805
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Idaho: 91 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+18
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; minimal tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 83254

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Active inventory: 107
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $461/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$271
• Net cashflow: $501

Break-even live

Break-even rent $658

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $549	-5% $525	+0% $501	+5% $477	+10% $453
Rent	-10% $399	-5% $450	+0% $501	+5% $552	+10% $603
Rate	-1.0pp $544	-0.5pp $523	base $501	+0.5pp $479	+1.0pp $457

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 112 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 111 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 110 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 109 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 107 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 106 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 103 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 102 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 101 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 100 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $85,000 Active 97 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 96 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 95 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 94 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 93 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $85,000
18. 2026-05-08
    status Active
19. 2026-04-17
    status Pending
20. 2026-04-06
    price $95,000
21. 2026-03-03
    price $100,000
22. 2026-02-06
    listed $125,000 Active
23. 2024-04-09
    historical
24. 2023-10-12
    listed $125,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ID · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $461 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $586 · $49/mo
• Expected delta: +$126/yr (+$10/mo · 27.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 2/10 Low 7% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,506
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$461
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,240
• − Management: −$1,240
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,177
• After-tax cash flow: $4,838/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bear Lake County District
• NCES district ID: 1600240
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,519
• Composite: 43.99/100
• National rank: #2892
• State rank: #25 of 92 in ID

Livability — Montpelier

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #3221

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Montpelier, ID
• Population (ZIP): 3,774

Population outlook (Bear Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,729 people
• By 2030: 5,586 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 5,357 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 5,186 · -9.5%
• By 2075: 4,836 · -15.6%
• By 2100: 4,302 · -24.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Bear Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+77.0) · D 10.4% · R 87.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: -63.7pp · 2024: -77.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+77.0 2020: R+77.3 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+77.5 2008: R+63.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -108.48%
• Current HPI: 255.903
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ID)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$79B
▸Technology	1	$25B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$6B

Price history

-32.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $85,000 PCTMLS
• 2026-05-08 Relisted — PCTMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — PCTMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $95,000 PCTMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $100,000 PCTMLS
• 2026-02-06 Listed $125,000 PCTMLS
• 2024-04-09 Listing Removed — WFRMLS
• 2023-10-12 Listed $125,000 WFRMLS

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $461 · -16.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.