578 Shiloh Rd

Ray City, GA 31645

$179,900B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2015 · Manufactured · Pending · 32 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,675/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax + insurance: −$139
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $241/mo
• Annual: $2,890/yr
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.74%
• DSCR: 1.26
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $50,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (6.9% below list).
• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#260 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Berrien County (rural): math 48% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #24 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Berrien Primary School (813 students, 83% FRL); Berrien Middle School (math 49% / reading 46%, grade C-, #84 of 470 statewide, top 19%, 684 students, 54% FRL); Berrien High School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #68 of 424 statewide, top 17%, 851 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 96 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berrien County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.1% in Ray City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.