578 Shiloh Rd · Ray City, GA 31645

$179,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 2015 2.32 ac lot $115/sqft · 27% below area Est $245k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy peaceful country living on over 2 acres with no HOA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home features a desirable split floor plan with spacious walk-in closets in every bedroom. The large kitchen offers an island, stainless steel appliances and plenty of cabinet space. You'll love the durability of the new metal roof and the easy maintenance of no carpet throughout the home. Step outside to a spacious fenced in yard with endless possibilities - pool, shop or garden space - plus a storage shed with a loft for additional storage. Conveniently located to Moody AFB. This property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility.

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Large kitchen
• Over 2 acres

Tags

• OVER 2 ACRES
• NO HOA
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS WALK-IN CLOSETS
• LARGE KITCHEN
• ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $241 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (6.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (6.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 4.1% in Ray City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#260 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Berrien County (rural): math 48% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #24 of 174 in GA (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 96 units permitted in Berrien County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.3% local appreciation)).
• Berrien County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,500 (6.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.74%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,000
• List price: $179,900
• Delta: -26.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.27% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $39,508
• Equity at exit: $83,625

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $115,923
• Equity at exit: $131,044

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31645

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,675 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $768/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $241

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,370

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $343	-5% $292	+0% $241	+5% $190	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $109	-5% $175	+0% $241	+5% $307	+10% $373
Rate	-1.0pp $331	-0.5pp $287	base $241	+0.5pp $194	+1.0pp $147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
288 North St Ray City, GA	3.0	2.0	1206	$1,675	$1.39	22d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Pending 643-char remark

   Show marketing remark (643 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living on over 2 acres with no HOA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home features a desirable split floor plan with spacious walk-in closets in every bedroom. The large kitchen offers an island, stainless steel appliances and plenty of cabinet space. You'll love the durability of the new metal roof and the easy maintenance of no carpet throughout the home. Step outside to a spacious fenced in yard with endless possibilities - pool, shop or garden space - plus a storage shed with a loft for additional storage. Conveniently located to Moody AFB. This property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility.

2. 2026-04-12
   listed $179,900 Active 643-char remark

   Show marketing remark (643 chars)

   Enjoy peaceful country living on over 2 acres with no HOA! This 3 bedroom, 2 bathroom mobile home features a desirable split floor plan with spacious walk-in closets in every bedroom. The large kitchen offers an island, stainless steel appliances and plenty of cabinet space. You'll love the durability of the new metal roof and the easy maintenance of no carpet throughout the home. Step outside to a spacious fenced in yard with endless possibilities - pool, shop or garden space - plus a storage shed with a loft for additional storage. Conveniently located to Moody AFB. This property offers the perfect blend of privacy and accessibility.

3. 2023-03-07
   soldstatus $144,100
4. 2023-03-03
   soldstatus $144,100 783-char remark

   Show marketing remark (783 chars)

   Looking for a little bit of land in the country with a home? Well, here it is. .. .. Well-loved, home nestled on 2.32 acres. NO CARPET. Luxury vinyl flooring was installed. The floor plan invites you to come inside as you enter the front door. Living room accented with a ceiling fan. The cased opening allows the open feeling into the dining area and part of the kitchen. The dining area is spacious and allows the view to the living room. All of the bedrooms have walk in closets. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bathroom and a large walk-in closet. Kitchen features an island with plenty of cabinet space and countertop area. The laundry room is at the end of the kitchen and has pantry storage and more. Exit to the FENCED back yard and enjoy the view or an evening fire.

5. 2022-12-09
   listed $139,900 783-char remark

   Show marketing remark (783 chars)

   Looking for a little bit of land in the country with a home? Well, here it is. .. .. Well-loved, home nestled on 2.32 acres. NO CARPET. Luxury vinyl flooring was installed. The floor plan invites you to come inside as you enter the front door. Living room accented with a ceiling fan. The cased opening allows the open feeling into the dining area and part of the kitchen. The dining area is spacious and allows the view to the living room. All of the bedrooms have walk in closets. The primary bedroom features an ensuite bathroom and a large walk-in closet. Kitchen features an island with plenty of cabinet space and countertop area. The laundry room is at the end of the kitchen and has pantry storage and more. Exit to the FENCED back yard and enjoy the view or an evening fire.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $768 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,655 · $138/mo
• Expected delta: +$887/yr (+$74/mo · 115.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 11 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$768
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,608
• − Management: −$1,608
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable loss: −$94
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$23
• After-tax cash flow: $2,913/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Berrien County
• NCES district ID: 1300390
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $33,858
• Composite: 37.95/100
• National rank: #4302
• State rank: #24 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ray City

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #260
• US rank: #14250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,971

Population outlook (Berrien County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,982 people
• By 2030: 17,282 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 15,676 · -12.8%
• By 2050: 13,876 · -22.8%
• By 2075: 9,689 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 6,430 · -64.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Iranian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Berrien

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.8) · D 15.0% · R 84.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -53.2pp · 2024: -69.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.8 2020: R+66.5 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+57.7 2008: R+53.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Current HPI: 233.1015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+28.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-04-12 Listed $179,900 SGMLS
• 2023-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $144,100 Public Records
• 2023-03-03 Sold (MLS) $144,100 SGMLS
• 2022-12-09 Listed $139,900 SGMLS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $768 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.