111 W Duncan Ave

Mertzon, TX 76941

$115,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Built 1999 · Manufactured · Active · 329 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,166/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax + insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $126/mo
• Annual: $1,517/yr
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• 1% rule: 1.01%
• Cash to close: $32,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• It's been on market 329 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#540 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Irion County ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #272 of 1,141 in TX (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Irion El (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 211 students, 36% FRL); Irion H S (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 122 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP.
• Irion County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 329 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.