111 W Duncan Ave · Mertzon, TX 76941

$115,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 329 Days on market

Built 1999 0.44 ac lot ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this fantastic property in the heart of Mertzon, Texas, featuring a community pool and school within walking distance, situated on two lots with ample space for hobbies or a workshop, a spacious carport with storage, and a comfortable interior with three bedrooms and two bathrooms in an open-concept living area. Come check out your new home today!

Key facts

• Two lots
• Community pool
• Walking distance

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• WALKING DISTANCE
• TWO LOTS
• SPACIOUS CARPORT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $126 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $101k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#540 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, health & safety C-, crime F.
• Irion County ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #272 of 1,141 in TX (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Irion El (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #409 of 4,322 statewide, top 10%, 211 students, 36% FRL); Irion H S (math 57% / reading 67%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 122 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Irion County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 329 days — a 12% lower offer ($101k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $101,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 329 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.71%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $12,766
• Equity at exit: $41,965

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $46,345
• Equity at exit: $57,923

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76941

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$144 /mo · $1,725/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $126

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,006

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $206	-5% $166	+0% $126	+5% $87	+10% $47
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $80	+0% $126	+5% $173	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $156	base $126	+0.5pp $97	+1.0pp $66

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $115,000 Active 329 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   pricedays on market $115,000 Active 327 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 326 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 325 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 324 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 323 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $120,000 Active 321 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 320 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $120,000 Active 318 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $120,000 Active 317 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $120,000 Active 316 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 315 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 311 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 310 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 309 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 308 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $120,000 Active 307 DOM
18. 2026-04-12
    price $120,000 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Discover this fantastic property in the heart of Mertzon, Texas, featuring a community pool and school within walking distance, situated on two lots with ample space for hobbies or a workshop, a spacious carport with storage, and a comfortable interior with three bedrooms and two bathrooms in an open-concept living area. Come check out your new home today!

19. 2026-03-25
    price $125,000 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Discover this fantastic property in the heart of Mertzon, Texas, featuring a community pool and school within walking distance, situated on two lots with ample space for hobbies or a workshop, a spacious carport with storage, and a comfortable interior with three bedrooms and two bathrooms in an open-concept living area. Come check out your new home today!

20. 2026-03-17
    status Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Discover this fantastic property in the heart of Mertzon, Texas, featuring a community pool and school within walking distance, situated on two lots with ample space for hobbies or a workshop, a spacious carport with storage, and a comfortable interior with three bedrooms and two bathrooms in an open-concept living area. Come check out your new home today!

21. 2026-02-20
    price $130,000 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Discover this fantastic property in the heart of Mertzon, Texas, featuring a community pool and school within walking distance, situated on two lots with ample space for hobbies or a workshop, a spacious carport with storage, and a comfortable interior with three bedrooms and two bathrooms in an open-concept living area. Come check out your new home today!

22. 2025-09-12
    price $135,000 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Discover this fantastic property in the heart of Mertzon, Texas, featuring a community pool and school within walking distance, situated on two lots with ample space for hobbies or a workshop, a spacious carport with storage, and a comfortable interior with three bedrooms and two bathrooms in an open-concept living area. Come check out your new home today!

23. 2025-08-13
    price $145,000 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Discover this fantastic property in the heart of Mertzon, Texas, featuring a community pool and school within walking distance, situated on two lots with ample space for hobbies or a workshop, a spacious carport with storage, and a comfortable interior with three bedrooms and two bathrooms in an open-concept living area. Come check out your new home today!

24. 2025-07-28
    price $148,000 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Discover this fantastic property in the heart of Mertzon, Texas, featuring a community pool and school within walking distance, situated on two lots with ample space for hobbies or a workshop, a spacious carport with storage, and a comfortable interior with three bedrooms and two bathrooms in an open-concept living area. Come check out your new home today!

25. 2025-07-11
    listed $155,000 Active 358-char remark

    Show marketing remark (358 chars)

    Discover this fantastic property in the heart of Mertzon, Texas, featuring a community pool and school within walking distance, situated on two lots with ample space for hobbies or a workshop, a spacious carport with storage, and a comfortable interior with three bedrooms and two bathrooms in an open-concept living area. Come check out your new home today!

26. 2022-12-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$1,725
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,119
• − Management: −$1,119
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable loss: −$333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$80
• After-tax cash flow: $1,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Irion County ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830360
• Math proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $51,367
• Composite: 46.9/100
• National rank: #5180
• State rank: #272 of 1141 in TX

Livability — Mertzon

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #540
• US rank: #10515

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mertzon, TX
• Population (ZIP): 1,216

Population outlook (Irion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,467 people
• By 2030: 1,433 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 1,363 · -7.1%
• By 2050: 1,287 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 1,081 · -26.3%
• By 2100: 780 · -46.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Irion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.6) · D 12.1% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.8pp toward R · 2008: -58.8pp · 2024: -75.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.6 2020: R+71.9 2016: R+75.0 2012: R+70.6 2008: R+58.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 139.9318
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-22.6% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Price Changed $120,000 SAAR TX
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $125,000 SAAR TX
• 2026-03-17 Relisted — SAAR TX
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $130,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $135,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $145,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-07-28 Price Changed $148,000 SAAR TX
• 2025-07-11 Listed $155,000 SAAR TX
• 2022-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $107 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.