8911 County Road 623

Blue Ridge, TX 75424

$494,000D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,229 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 212 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,238/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,591
• Tax + insurance: −$823
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-1,646/mo
• Annual: $-19,753/yr
• Cap rate: 2.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.28%
• DSCR: 0.36
• 1% rule: 0.45%
• Cash to close: $138,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $494k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (48.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $224k (54.7% below list).
• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($435k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $224k (54.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,305 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Blue Ridge ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #154 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $63k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.3% in Blue Ridge — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.