8911 County Road 623 · Blue Ridge, TX 75424

$494,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,229 sqft · SingleFamily · 212 Days on market

Built 2026 1.20 ac lot $222/sqft · 12% below area Est $559k · 12% under ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ask us about our Trade In Trade Up program, we can buy your home! We are excited to introduce a brand new floor plan called the Salado! The entry is open to a bright flex Room on the right. The private owner's suite is separate from bedrooms 2 through 4. The owner's suite is complete by including a garden tub, separate shower, private commode, walk in closet, and dual, separate vanities. Adjacent to the owner's suite is the large living room with a fireplace option and open to the spacious island kitchen.

Key facts

• Large living room
• Separate shower
• Walk in closet

Tags

• OWNER'S SUITE
• GARDEN TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• WALK IN CLOSET
• DUAL SEPARATE VANITIES
• LARGE LIVING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $494k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (48.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (54.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $225k (54.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.3% in Blue Ridge — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,305 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Blue Ridge ISD (rural): math 52% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #154 of 826 in TX (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 205 active listings in the ZIP; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 212 days — a 12% lower offer ($435k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $63k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $224,506 (54.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 212 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 55% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.45% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.31%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.23%
• DSCR: 0.37
• GRM: 18.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $559,349
• List price: $494,000
• Delta: -11.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8885 County Road 623	0.04mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,020 (-9%)	1mo	$485,000	$240	77
9013 County Road 623	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,483 (+11%)	0mo	$545,300	$220	72
13999 Lackey Dr	0.53mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,280 (+2%)	5mo	$899,000	$394	60
9079 County Road 623	0.22mi	4/3.0	2,499 (+12%)	21mo	$534,900	$214	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $164,606
• Equity at exit: $445,034

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.10×
• Total profit: $566,962
• Equity at exit: $959,733

Cash invested: $138,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75424

• Home prices YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 205
• Price-to-rent: 18.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,245 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,591
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$618 /mo · $7,410/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$471
• Net cashflow: $-1,640

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,321

Max offer price $256,642

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,500
• Closing costs: $14,820
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $494,000 Active 212 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $494,000 Active 211 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $494,000 Active 210 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $494,000 Active 209 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $494,000 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $494,000 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $494,000 Active 203 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $494,000 Active 202 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $494,000 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $497,000 Active 198 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $497,000 Active 197 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $497,000 Active 196 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $497,000 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $497,000 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-05-08
    price $497,000 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Ask us about our Trade In Trade Up program, we can buy your home! We are excited to introduce a brand new floor plan called the Salado! The entry is open to a bright flex Room on the right. The private owner's suite is separate from bedrooms 2 through 4. The owner's suite is complete by including a garden tub, separate shower, private commode, walk in closet, and dual, separate vanities. Adjacent to the owner's suite is the large living room with a fireplace option and open to the spacious island kitchen.

16. 2026-04-02
    price $499,900 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Ask us about our Trade In Trade Up program, we can buy your home! We are excited to introduce a brand new floor plan called the Salado! The entry is open to a bright flex Room on the right. The private owner's suite is separate from bedrooms 2 through 4. The owner's suite is complete by including a garden tub, separate shower, private commode, walk in closet, and dual, separate vanities. Adjacent to the owner's suite is the large living room with a fireplace option and open to the spacious island kitchen.

17. 2026-01-14
    price $519,900 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Ask us about our Trade In Trade Up program, we can buy your home! We are excited to introduce a brand new floor plan called the Salado! The entry is open to a bright flex Room on the right. The private owner's suite is separate from bedrooms 2 through 4. The owner's suite is complete by including a garden tub, separate shower, private commode, walk in closet, and dual, separate vanities. Adjacent to the owner's suite is the large living room with a fireplace option and open to the spacious island kitchen.

18. 2026-01-14
    price $519,900 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Ask us about our Trade In Trade Up program, we can buy your home! We are excited to introduce a brand new floor plan called the Salado! The entry is open to a bright flex Room on the right. The private owner's suite is separate from bedrooms 2 through 4. The owner's suite is complete by including a garden tub, separate shower, private commode, walk in closet, and dual, separate vanities. Adjacent to the owner's suite is the large living room with a fireplace option and open to the spacious island kitchen.

19. 2025-11-21
    price $537,350 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    We are excited to introduce a brand new floor plan called the Salado! The entry is open to a bright flex Room on the right. The private owner's suite is separate from bedrooms 2 through 4. The owner's suite is complete by including a garden tub, separate shower, private commode, walk in closet, and dual, separate vanities. Adjacent to the owner's suite is the large living room with a fireplace option and open to the spacious island kitchen.

20. 2025-11-21
    price $557,350 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    We are excited to introduce a brand new floor plan called the Salado! The entry is open to a bright flex Room on the right. The private owner's suite is separate from bedrooms 2 through 4. The owner's suite is complete by including a garden tub, separate shower, private commode, walk in closet, and dual, separate vanities. Adjacent to the owner's suite is the large living room with a fireplace option and open to the spacious island kitchen.

21. 2025-11-21
    price $537,350 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    We are excited to introduce a brand new floor plan called the Salado! The entry is open to a bright flex Room on the right. The private owner's suite is separate from bedrooms 2 through 4. The owner's suite is complete by including a garden tub, separate shower, private commode, walk in closet, and dual, separate vanities. Adjacent to the owner's suite is the large living room with a fireplace option and open to the spacious island kitchen.

22. 2025-11-20
    price $537,350 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Ask us about our Trade In Trade Up program, we can buy your home! We are excited to introduce a brand new floor plan called the Salado! The entry is open to a bright flex Room on the right. The private owner's suite is separate from bedrooms 2 through 4. The owner's suite is complete by including a garden tub, separate shower, private commode, walk in closet, and dual, separate vanities. Adjacent to the owner's suite is the large living room with a fireplace option and open to the spacious island kitchen.

23. 2025-11-18
    listed $557,350 Active 510-char remark

    Show marketing remark (510 chars)

    Ask us about our Trade In Trade Up program, we can buy your home! We are excited to introduce a brand new floor plan called the Salado! The entry is open to a bright flex Room on the right. The private owner's suite is separate from bedrooms 2 through 4. The owner's suite is complete by including a garden tub, separate shower, private commode, walk in closet, and dual, separate vanities. Adjacent to the owner's suite is the large living room with a fireplace option and open to the spacious island kitchen.

24. 2025-10-15
    listed $557,350 Active 444-char remark

    Show marketing remark (444 chars)

    We are excited to introduce a brand new floor plan called the Salado! The entry is open to a bright flex Room on the right. The private owner's suite is separate from bedrooms 2 through 4. The owner's suite is complete by including a garden tub, separate shower, private commode, walk in closet, and dual, separate vanities. Adjacent to the owner's suite is the large living room with a fireplace option and open to the spacious island kitchen.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,941
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,672
• − Property taxes: −$7,410
• − Insurance: −$2,470
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,155
• − Management: −$2,155
• − Depreciation: −$14,371
• Taxable loss: −$29,292
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,030
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,654/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blue Ridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810590
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $53,738
• Composite: 43.99/100
• National rank: #2894
• State rank: #154 of 826 in TX

Livability — Blue Ridge

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1305
• US rank: #22618

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 3,908
• Population (ZIP): 3,908

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 10% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 27.07%
• Current HPI: 354.45
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $497,000 NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $499,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $519,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $519,900 NTREIS
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $537,350 Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $557,350 Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $537,350 Zillow
• 2025-11-20 Price Changed $537,350 NTREIS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $557,350 NTREIS
• 2025-10-15 Listed $557,350 Zillow