5307 W Rock Spring Dr

Meadowbrook, VA 23234

$250,000D+

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,456 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,896/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax + insurance: −$311
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$398
• Net cashflow: $-125/mo
• Annual: $-1,496/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $70,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $250k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-125 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (24.2% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $190k (24.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#161 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: J.G. Hening Elementary (math 48% / reading 62%, grade C, #643 of 1,108 statewide, top 59%, 819 students, 82% FRL); Falling Creek Middle (math 28% / reading 46%, grade F, #319 of 342 statewide, top 93%, 1,419 students, 80% FRL); Meadowbrook High (math 22% / reading 65%, grade F, #314 of 319 statewide, top 98%, 2,033 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 26% district-wide (54 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 45% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Chesterfield County Public School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 234 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $120k; list at $250k implies a 108% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.9% in Meadowbrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.