Essex Plan

Lowell, IN 46356

$346,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,517 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 420 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,738/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,819
• Tax + insurance: −$578
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$575
• Net cashflow: $-234/mo
• Annual: $-2,809/yr
• Cap rate: 5.48%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.89%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.79%
• Cash to close: $97,133

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $347k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-234 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $313k (9.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (21.1% below list).
• It's been on market 420 days — a 12% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $274k (21.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in IN, #3,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Three Creeks Elem School (math 55% / reading 48%, grade C-, #256 of 994 statewide, top 26%, 515 students, 30% FRL); Lowell Middle School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D, #81 of 330 statewide, top 25%, 742 students, 33% FRL); Lowell Senior High School (math 31% / reading 75%, grade C-, #99 of 369 statewide, top 27%, 1,033 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 431 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lowell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 420 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.