Essex Plan · Lowell, IN 46356

$343,400

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,517 sqft · SingleFamily · 512 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This two-story home has a smart layout that offers space and convenience. The first floor is occupied by the main living area, which includes an open family room, a well-equipped kitchen and a cozy dining room. Upstairs are all three bedrooms, including the owner's suite which comes equipped with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. A two-car garage for versatile storage space completes the home.

Key facts

• Main living area
• Full bathroom
• Open family room

Tags

• MAIN LIVING AREA
• OPEN FAMILY ROOM
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• COZY DINING ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• FULL BATHROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $343,400 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $346,904.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $343k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-346 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.1% vs local median 3.8% in Lowell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in IN, #3,455 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Tri-Creek School Corporation (town): math 46% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #39 of 301 in IN (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Three Creeks Elem School (math 55% / reading 48%, grade C-, #256 of 994 statewide, top 26%, 515 students, 30% FRL); Lowell Middle School (math 36% / reading 54%, grade D, #81 of 330 statewide, top 25%, 742 students, 33% FRL); Lowell Senior High School (math 31% / reading 75%, grade C-, #99 of 369 statewide, top 27%, 1,033 students, 29% FRL).
• Market conditions: 573 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 512 days — a 12% lower offer ($302k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $259,690 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 512 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.27%
• DSCR: 0.81
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $346,904
• List price: $343,400
• Delta: -1.01%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
17814 Hillside Dr	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,517 (0%)	5mo	$324,901	$214	90
17826 Hillside Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5	1,517 (0%)	4mo	$324,902	$214	89
4736 Crk Vw Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,517 (0%)	4mo	$334,901	$221	89
17928 Hillside Dr	0.24mi	3/2.5	1,517 (0%)	2mo	$335,113	$221	88
17937 Hillside Dr	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,517 (0%)	0mo	$324,903	$214	87
17961 Hillside Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,517 (0%)	1mo	$343,000	$226	84
17802 Hillside Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-4%)	5mo	$364,202	$250	82
17808 Hillside Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,637 (+8%)	5mo	$357,901	$219	77
17955 Hillside Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,455 (-4%)	0mo	$348,903	$240	77
4768 Creek View Ln	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,637 (+8%)	4mo	$355,000	$217	75
17922 Hillside Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,637 (+8%)	2mo	$350,000	$214	74
17946 Hillside Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	1,637 (+8%)	0mo	$345,000	$211	73

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-78,200
• Equity at exit: $51,725

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.01×
• Total profit: $-96,298
• Equity at exit: $29,994

Cash invested: $97,133 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 29 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 6.2 mo (16%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $370,400 ($226/sqft)
• Median days on market: 45 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +1.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 46356

• Home prices YoY: -30.1%
• Active inventory: 573
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,597 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,819
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$434 /mo · $5,204/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-346

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,035

Max offer price $296,863

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-106	-5% $-226	+0% $-346	+5% $-466	+10% $-586
Rent	-10% $-551	-5% $-448	+0% $-346	+5% $-243	+10% $-141
Rate	-1.0pp $-171	-0.5pp $-258	base $-346	+0.5pp $-436	+1.0pp $-527

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,726
• Closing costs: $10,407
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4507 W 173rd Ave Lowell, IN	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,800	$1.47	3d	1	0.58mi
4507 W 173rd Ave Lowell, IN	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,800	$1.47	0d	1	0.58mi
6032 W 175th Ave Lowell, IN	3.0	1.5	1408	$1,850	$1.31	24d	1	1.23mi
561 Eastwood Dr Lowell, IN	3.0	2.0	1344	$2,600	$1.93	124d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $343,400 Active 512 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $343,400 Active 511 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $343,400 Active 510 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $343,400 Active 509 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $343,400 Active 508 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $343,400 Active 506 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $343,400 Active 505 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $343,400 Active 504 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $343,400 Active 503 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $343,400 Active 502 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $343,400 Active 501 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $343,400 Active 500 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $343,400 Active 499 DOM
14. 2026-10-25
    days on market $343,400 Active 498 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $343,400 Active 497 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $343,400 Active 496 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    price $343,400 Active 495 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $341,400 Active 495 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $341,400 Active 494 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $341,400 Active 493 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $341,400 Active 492 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $341,400 Active 491 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $341,400 Active 490 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $341,400 Active 489 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $341,400 Active 488 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $341,400 Active 487 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $341,400 Active 486 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $341,400 Active 485 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $341,400 Active 484 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    pricedays on market $341,400 Active 483 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $339,400 Active 482 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $339,400 Active 481 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $339,400 Active 480 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $339,400 Active 479 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $339,400 Active 478 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $339,400 Active 477 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $339,400 Active 476 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $339,400 Active 475 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    price $339,400 Active 474 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $354,400 Active 474 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $354,400 Active 473 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    days on market $354,400 Active 472 DOM
43. 2026-09-28
    days on market $354,400 Active 471 DOM
44. 2026-09-27
    days on market $354,400 Active 470 DOM
45. 2026-09-26
    days on market $354,400 Active 469 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $354,400 Active 468 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $354,400 Active 467 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    days on market $354,400 Active 466 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    pricedays on market $354,400 Active 465 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $352,400 Active 464 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,432
• − Property taxes: −$5,204
• − Insurance: −$1,735
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,493
• − Management: −$2,493
• − Depreciation: −$10,092
• Taxable loss: −$10,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,468
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This two-story home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and well-maintained landscaping. It offers a good investment opportunity with minimal updates needed to enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value to the property. ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures enhance the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Flooring — New flooring improves the home's appearance and adds value to the property. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Three Creeks Elem School C- IN #256/994 Nat'l #12,137/41,679 Middle Lowell Middle School D IN #81/330 Nat'l #4,622/14,009 High Lowell Senior High School C- IN #99/369 Nat'l #4,893/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tri-Creek School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1811460
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $64,614
• Composite: 44.97/100
• National rank: #2704
• State rank: #39 of 301 in IN

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Lowell

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #3455

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lowell, IN
• County: Lake · 484,026 people
• City population: 19,396
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN
• Population (ZIP): 19,396
• Household income: $87,535
• Rent vs Own: 10.8% rent · 89.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 7% of renters

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Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -110.73%
• Current HPI: 256.6224
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $335,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $333,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $329,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $349,900 Zillow
• 2026-01-03 Price Changed $345,900 Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $340,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-14 Listed $335,900 Zillow